AI · resolved market
Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fec5aa6c16c89a61d94896c219a6bba41d6e05bcdfa87f7fa3965465689c643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,201$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 7c | 3,376$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.97 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 73c | 2,338$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.82 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…9e3ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,228$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 40c | 2,100$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.84 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 34c | 2,000$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.48 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…ff74backed No | 63c | 1,678$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,446$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 1,263$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.47 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 25c | 1,219$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 1,161$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…96bdbacked No | 59c | 1,012$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 76c | 999.97$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…8288backed Yes | 2c | 970.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…ee56backed No | 70c | 857.43$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 64c | 780.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 41c | 757$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…d9e0backed Yes | 40c | 744.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 27c | 717.77$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 62c | 595.48$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 38c | 528.53$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 39c | 495.06$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 483.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 58c | 473.53$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 73c | 447.67$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 69c | 380.88$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…08a5backed No | 80c | 376$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 335.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 72c | 322.29$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 42c | 320.74$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…8469backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…8caabacked Yes | 33c | 299.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…fe2ebacked No | 69c | 291.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b1…4702backed Yes | 44c | 267.41$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 71c | 260.74$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 259.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…9eb9backed Yes | 41c | 241.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 50c | 222.76$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xface…0572backed Yes | 31c | 222$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 60c | 215$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 213.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 37c | 212.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked No | 69c | 210.82$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 34c | 210.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…bad1backed No | 63c | 193.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896d…9dd0backed Yes | 52c | 191.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45bf…5111backed No | 64c | 187.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 25c | 185.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 183.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 40c | 178.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b3…c5eabacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…6c84backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 41c | 162.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5c10backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Yes | 34c | 147.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…1e34backed No | 69c | 145.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 136$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 74c | 122$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7763…815ebacked Yes | 43c | 117.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 10c | 116.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf467…a572backed No | 79c | 113$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…d51cbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 39c | 97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…43bdbacked No | 59c | 94.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9467…e769backed Yes | 45c | 93.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x112d…68f0backed No | 79c | 87.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…f2cdbacked Yes | 21c | 86.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 82.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca5…4b51backed No | 66c | 74.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee90…d959backed No | 74c | 67.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 60c | 67.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked Yes | 40c | 65.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked No | 58c | 60.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…20d5backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…0c8fbacked No | 78c | 57.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd87c…8c12backed No | 69c | 54.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e9…d9eabacked Yes | 39c | 51.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 58c | 51.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked No | 62c | 50.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ace…9850backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…9971backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…9c0ebacked No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…fd43backed Yes | 42c | 47.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…8b20backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…37adbacked No | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f96…9dd5backed No | 60c | 44.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…1d1dbacked No | 58c | 43.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 37c | 40.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f9…44a4backed Yes | 50c | 40.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a583backed No | 57c | 38.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed Yes | 34c | 36.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.