Us Politics · resolved market
US military action against Iran by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2f2bdc4427cfe0b7ae878355610478ad2384e387705e42cf8c8f596193488c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,340,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,483,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,340,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 481 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 3c | 391,298$11,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,845.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 3c | 112,874$3,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,302.12 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 7c | 52,837$3,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,743.83 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed Yes | 33c | 39,650$13,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,264.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 9c | 39,401$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.68 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…cfdabacked Yes | 4c | 38,033$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 5c | 38,000$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 8c | 33,955$2,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.1 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 77c | 29,779$22,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,993.2 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…1574backed Yes | 11c | 29,701$3,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,324 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 9c | 22,817$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.62 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…0126backed Yes | 20c | 20,369$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…d428backed Yes | 5c | 20,000$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +753.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 19,308$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.57 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…3b43backed Yes | 9c | 19,275$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +387.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 73c | 18,838$13,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,073.61 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 11c | 16,830$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.49 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e19…7ff6backed Yes | 28c | 16,129$4,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,572.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 7c | 14,911$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.26 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 6c | 13,040$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +673.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 12,845$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 5c | 12,276$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.48 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 3c | 12,086$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db6…1c77backed Yes | 4c | 11,771$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 11c | 11,558$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.73 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 24c | 11,461$2,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 5c | 11,326$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.3 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 3c | 11,166$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 21c | 10,833$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,268.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 5c | 10,386$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…81cebacked Yes | 11c | 9,187$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +218.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 24c | 9,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 73c | 8,944$6,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.82 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…7532backed Yes | 19c | 8,613$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b1…06efbacked Yes | 3c | 8,378$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…3cc7backed Yes | 15c | 7,856$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e8…d63ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,570$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +172.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 77c | 7,516$5,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.06 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 74c | 7,500$5,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.11 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5201backed Yes | 4c | 7,091$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 7,053$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.12 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 18c | 6,663$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 23c | 6,300$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.35 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 30c | 6,287$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.18 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…5cccbacked Yes | 8c | 6,284$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb22…075fbacked Yes | 17c | 6,201$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…8c91backed Yes | 22c | 6,009$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…23fabacked Yes | 0c | 5,896$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…ff69backed No | 72c | 5,833$4,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 5,800$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a22…a3babacked Yes | 4c | 5,546$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 20c | 5,444$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.68 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…6879backed Yes | 30c | 5,284$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 5,246$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.58 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 4c | 5,197$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.28 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc73…e1c6backed Yes | 19c | 5,133$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…3fa1backed No | 75c | 5,104$3,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 5c | 5,046$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.34 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 7c | 4,755$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.59 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 2c | 4,681$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 5c | 4,650$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 19c | 4,617$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.5 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 4,451$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.72 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 20c | 4,304$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes | 22c | 4,234$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…bd47backed Yes | 6c | 4,187$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Yes | 4c | 4,094$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +217.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 19c | 4,000$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…ce7abacked Yes | 5c | 3,974$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…d3e6backed Yes | 20c | 3,753$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed Yes | 7c | 3,666$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed Yes | 5c | 3,642$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 27c | 3,567$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 3,439$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.46 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 3,400$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.37 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 79c | 3,340$2,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.6 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6059…2f6ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,228$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,106$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…936fbacked No | 78c | 3,058$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes | 32c | 3,001$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 73c | 3,000$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.84 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed No | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…c096backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273a…840abacked Yes | 24c | 2,923$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…6dc4backed Yes | 4c | 2,909$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +369.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…99ddbacked Yes | 5c | 2,880$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +177.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 17c | 2,872$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 1c | 2,869$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…e581backed Yes | 2c | 2,823$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd806…6aa8backed Yes | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…9ddebacked Yes | 25c | 2,763$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,692$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.09 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…d0eebacked Yes | 4c | 2,665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadee…4e49backed Yes | 5c | 2,615$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd2…7a82backed Yes | 3c | 2,555$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada6…8bcfbacked Yes | 23c | 2,427$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…8a27backed Yes | 6c | 2,338$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3781…9a71backed Yes | 11c | 2,303$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.