Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe346dde553c6a916cf8f8c1c17a913bef4a08a675f56a41549e4dd7456772fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4113…9514backed Yes | 47c | 2,115$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.54 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 57c | 1,256$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 52c | 1,207$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.36 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 22c | 499.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.98 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 16c | 459.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…b1d3backed No | 78c | 448.5$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 56c | 432.57$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 35c | 350$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 39c | 315.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.49 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d1…0bcdbacked Yes | 67c | 300.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 55c | 250.94$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…08fdbacked Yes | 45c | 247.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…cca9backed Yes | 48c | 247.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 44c | 228.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.46 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 56c | 209.2$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 47c | 204.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 198.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked No | 79c | 160.77$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 25c | 134.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 37c | 121.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 52c | 117.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed Yes | 44c | 114.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 49c | 109.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 52c | 107.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 33c | 105.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…fe45backed Yes | 50c | 99.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…6406backed Yes | 54c | 92.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…2f92backed Yes | 60c | 90.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 45c | 89.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 62c | 80.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…86f5backed No | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc637…c341backed No | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…402dbacked No | 51c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…8b98backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…9300backed Yes | 44c | 59.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 37c | 58.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…bad8backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…be95backed Yes | 47c | 53.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa174…e3fcbacked No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c2…4c90backed Yes | 51c | 48.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…7285backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 51c | 40.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 41c | 37.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…b498backed Yes | 55c | 36.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…eb14backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…41eebacked Yes | 44c | 35.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8464…10f9backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed No | 73c | 27.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 59c | 25.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 63c | 20.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…a973backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…4e38backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…0068backed No | 80c | 16.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.