Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x941a7498ae188aa2547f4a3f55d66ca9b1c8b6e278e62509622798f599e01ce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe52a…7ebcbacked Yes | 2c | 620$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d1…0bcdbacked No | 71c | 564.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed No | 79c | 517.1$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 22c | 426.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…8b98backed Yes | 9c | 352.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 76c | 333$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 79c | 310.35$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe118…df32backed Yes | 6c | 283.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…0a19backed Yes | 22c | 213.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…6497backed Yes | 7c | 206.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 19c | 196.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…8e12backed Yes | 35c | 155.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 38c | 140.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…f6a8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 21c | 99.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 48c | 94.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 52c | 90.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 75c | 83.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Yes | 60c | 82.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…367fbacked Yes | 57c | 79.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…70c1backed Yes | 59c | 67.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…03dbbacked Yes | 23c | 64.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 46c | 63.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 64c | 62.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84a…d9e3backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8464…10f9backed Yes | 30c | 41.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 39.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fd…9fc2backed Yes | 57c | 39.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…7ba0backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…f9edbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…58c5backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6f…1539backed Yes | 67c | 22.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.