Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ba1fbb2976f3755f9864e9b977e97e27e5e55ab97621833c640868e01c6db5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 473.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 48c | 340$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 50c | 326.07$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.04 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 46c | 215.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 58c | 131.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…6255backed Yes | 53c | 116.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa174…e3fcbacked Yes | 55c | 93.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 80.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 53c | 65.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…63d9backed No | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 45c | 55.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 47c | 52.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…70c1backed Yes | 58c | 52.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…9300backed Yes | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…973ebacked No | 45c | 44.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 48c | 41.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 61c | 39.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 28.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 54c | 27.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 42c | 26.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…4230backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…df33backed No | 69c | 18.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.