TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,471 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e4…c991backed No76c1,159$881 inWon+$277.962142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost-$27020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c4…14f1backed No79c275.7$219 inWon+$56.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb6a…857abacked Yes20c201.74$40 inLost-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes19c201.73$38 inLost-$38.332512%3 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+116.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes15c200$30 inLost-$3049023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes31c191.52$60 inLost-$607360.3%44 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes19c179.99$34 inLost-$34.215523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x012e…5f25backed Yes27c174.05$48 inLost-$47.672528%7 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf920…4d4ebacked No73c137.66$100 inWon+$37.66966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No67c112.83$76 inWon+$37.232669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$207233.3%24 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dbc…3b68backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes19c87$17 inLost-$16.5635819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes24c70.24$17 inLost-$16.995743.9%25 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5065…fdbbbacked No72c53$38 inWon+$14.843243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed No79c50$40 inWon+$10.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes28c49$14 inLost-$13.721,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No73c43$31 inWon+$11.6126619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb13…de34backed No73c30$22 inWon+$8.1966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked No72c21$15 inWon+$5.881844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44f…4d77backed No78c19.29$15 inWon+$4.29366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.