Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa7d23508cb7827dfe5b2c72ab942e023e33c3fed99ef289c9fc63667d6abfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe87…bb4abacked Yes | 5c | 673.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed No | 60c | 460.72$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.29 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 62c | 400$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…9016backed No | 60c | 380$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb50…daa3backed Yes | 3c | 343.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 4c | 333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed Yes | 35c | 256.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 232.82$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 230.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 40c | 217.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 59c | 202.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 59c | 190.36$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 25c | 154.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 55c | 146$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…3234backed No | 78c | 142.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a8…799dbacked Yes | 45c | 136$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 65c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 24c | 126$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Yes | 23c | 107.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…3b68backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…8b98backed Yes | 20c | 97.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…2dadbacked No | 64c | 93.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56f5…04e0backed Yes | 49c | 92.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 64c | 91.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked No | 65c | 84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…1e74backed No | 63c | 78.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 73c | 71.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 39c | 68.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…463cbacked Yes | 38c | 67.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…cca9backed No | 75c | 67.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6416…5bd6backed Yes | 40c | 57.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…f9edbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…40e2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 62c | 48.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…70c1backed Yes | 43c | 46.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 40.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…86f5backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…4e55backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…df33backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked No | 62c | 28.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 58c | 28.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…cb0bbacked Yes | 38c | 27.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32db…fcdcbacked No | 73c | 23.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…b153backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…de34backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.