Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb88f230411469874938f69084711b557b8fb2864f493910df032c761f9039113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 5c | 2,472$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 5c | 1,009$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 13c | 799.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 8c | 747.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 6c | 686.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 10c | 560.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…fa46backed No | 4c | 238.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…410abacked No | 4c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 69c | 228.13$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…cca9backed No | 35c | 143.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked Yes | 70c | 142.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked No | 42c | 134.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 43c | 115.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 108.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 60c | 95.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 23c | 91.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…9300backed No | 35c | 87.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 58c | 71.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc637…c341backed No | 37c | 68.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…b3d2backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 68c | 47.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9139…05a1backed No | 48c | 42.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…6168backed Yes | 69c | 34.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 66c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44f…4d77backed Yes | 68c | 17.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 60c | 16.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.