Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3848a6596b0216dacb0dc3f8ca14eb34aa28fbcc27c69cede2394bc878501cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd383…c77abacked Yes | 79c | 432.67$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 43c | 320$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.2 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed No | 52c | 305.91$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 20c | 250.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 21c | 175$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 61c | 173$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 56c | 160$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 35c | 138.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 74c | 100.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…11d1backed Yes | 73c | 91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 89.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 55c | 88.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Yes | 79c | 73.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 35c | 72.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 79c | 71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…57f2backed No | 22c | 69.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 76c | 69.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 27c | 67.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed No | 21c | 60.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 23c | 56.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…402dbacked Yes | 78c | 30.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…df33backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…58c5backed Yes | 77c | 26.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa6…1162backed No | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.