Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65872e8aa568acd102b8513c09358f81920e4665f2dc5c02cd7e61ed57ed9b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 0c | 4,779$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e03…d5ecbacked No | 2c | 2,644$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d1…0bcdbacked No | 13c | 2,266$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…6f10backed No | 6c | 1,015$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…a55abacked No | 2c | 873.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 3c | 568$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…8e12backed No | 6c | 537.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 40c | 432.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 6c | 342.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…b22dbacked No | 10c | 303.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 59c | 284.6$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…cca9backed Yes | 70c | 283.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 29c | 270.61$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…d984backed Yes | 60c | 226.4$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 29c | 201.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 187.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 28c | 183.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked No | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 65c | 154.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 43c | 133.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 68c | 132.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 61c | 127.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 35c | 109.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…99afbacked No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 63c | 90.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 66c | 70.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 64.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 58c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…5dc5backed Yes | 62c | 59.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked No | 37c | 50.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 64c | 45.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e9…b4a3backed Yes | 62c | 45.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…05babacked Yes | 61c | 40.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…fac1backed Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 54c | 30.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…a973backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 79c | 27.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…18a6backed No | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.