Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21b6b80acd95536432c79ad517522c3e192ad65df7fcb4920518a7ff8b76f174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 14c | 800.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 11c | 649.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 13c | 478$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 472.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 12c | 392.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked No | 11c | 367.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 324.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa174…e3fcbacked No | 16c | 294.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…c98dbacked No | 10c | 290.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…cca9backed No | 22c | 226.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 10c | 194.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 8c | 165$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…4d61backed No | 10c | 164.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 10c | 162$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 17c | 158.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…7879backed No | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked No | 11c | 130.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 16c | 123.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 9c | 121.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x462b…f246backed No | 13c | 86.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 15c | 75.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b91…eec9backed Yes | 79c | 57.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6486…b00bbacked No | 29c | 46.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…261ebacked No | 38c | 37.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 71c | 35.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…86d8backed Yes | 72c | 34.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…bdb3backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 52c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.