Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d86c3e2fb28a76bfe20179049b627078f0beb9b6534a66cba647919867e0773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…410abacked No | 2c | 3,792$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 7c | 2,038$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked No | 7c | 1,569$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 2c | 970$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 65c | 874.02$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.17 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 35c | 800$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 513.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked No | 7c | 506.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 75c | 391.05$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 16c | 370$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…b210backed No | 8c | 263.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 75c | 133.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…0a02backed No | 44c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206e…ce51backed Yes | 70c | 97.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 87.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dba…2ac5backed Yes | 67c | 75.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 28c | 70.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…57f2backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…2e09backed Yes | 51c | 39.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 35.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…267dbacked No | 32c | 34.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…973ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x826a…bf87backed Yes | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked Yes | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…de34backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 55c | 19.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.