Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfaaf8cc3e7abebece7914647a0e227a761b14b9ef314b6b0a5eccb13cf94781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59e4…3130backed No | 40c | 1,403$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 39c | 706$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.81 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 583$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 59c | 345.97$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…99afbacked No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…0094backed Yes | 61c | 330.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 32c | 288.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 49c | 226.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 46c | 218.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x63d7…0c87backed No | 48c | 208.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed No | 55c | 207.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 30c | 204.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 18c | 190$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 27c | 175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 49c | 170.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 64c | 157.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Yes | 51c | 154.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 71c | 145.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 47c | 143.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…43a4backed Yes | 76c | 130.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 36c | 127.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked Yes | 80c | 125.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 12c | 124.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 23c | 114.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 17c | 113.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…5dc5backed No | 43c | 110.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked No | 32c | 105.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…8e12backed No | 30c | 99.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 16c | 99.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 48c | 93.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931b…07c5backed Yes | 74c | 86.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 29c | 66.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…267dbacked No | 25c | 66.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…973ebacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 72c | 61.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d4…a164backed Yes | 65c | 49.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…d720backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 59c | 36.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…ce5dbacked No | 46c | 32.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…9300backed Yes | 54c | 31.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…a10bbacked Yes | 60c | 31.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e0…8bf3backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 42c | 26.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x181c…e9b9backed No | 65c | 15.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.