TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,504 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe6c9…975ebacked No4c2,827$109 inLost-$108.9935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No3c944.99$29 inLost-$29.327047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked No7c884.37$65 inLost-$65520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No14c660.15$89 inLost-$89.451942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No19c560.98$106 inLost-$106.1949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed No10c540.64$53 inLost-$52.843748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes73c473.93$346 inWon+$127.733046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No14c300$42 inLost-$4218151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked No12c288.89$34 inLost-$34.131435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+54.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No14c224.98$31 inLost-$31.4417839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No15c215.82$33 inLost-$33.1240828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28d9…17bbbacked No12c208$25 inLost-$24.962166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+65.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No15c189.93$28 inLost-$28.4917931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No26c159.73$41 inLost-$41.2319445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No10c110.26$11 inLost-$11.039848%47 W · 51 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No12c109$13 inLost-$13.0815523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No20c100$20 inLost-$207939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked No14c95.47$13 inLost-$13.3716832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No28c91$25 inLost-$25.2786542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf88…bc20backed Yes80c40$32 inWon+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8af…7ba0backed Yes73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.4425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.