Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e8b2ed01ecf53ae5b4203f590bd793737d2074fed493fe0f46ff87428e705e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 23c | 1,848$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 7c | 1,134$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 15c | 1,003$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 899.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 28c | 718.69$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.25 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked Yes | 73c | 621.57$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 36c | 387.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.69 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 68c | 342.91$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 30c | 333.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.63 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 49c | 308.57$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.97 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked No | 52c | 301.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed No | 66c | 300$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…0498backed Yes | 15c | 232.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 215.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.93 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 9c | 206$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 58c | 203$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 70c | 191.48$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 52c | 190.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…6f10backed No | 58c | 170.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba09…cca9backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x479d…4ecfbacked Yes | 69c | 144.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…c8a6backed No | 62c | 132.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 31c | 130$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 9c | 125.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 51c | 124.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 22c | 114.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 32c | 94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 89.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…9300backed No | 32c | 87.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 71c | 84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 75c | 78.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 45c | 74.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 32c | 64.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 68c | 61.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 74c | 60.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…b1d3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 45.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked No | 48c | 41.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +6.2wins | +0.39per pick | 42cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…3277backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…b7d6backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…de34backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…7ba0backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Yes | 68c | 27.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…9f4bbacked Yes | 70c | 22.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…01a9backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…cb0bbacked Yes | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Crown" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Iran" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" 5+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace prize" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace through Strength" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Phase Two" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Riviera" or "Resort" during Egypt summit?No won
- Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Jared" during Egypt summit?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.