Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7fc89b4a438b3fee9ce26a4f86974f0362a5e040053dc74c76aa6c09738eac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 61c | 15,886$9,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,711.96 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 43c | 10,639$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,619.92 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 40c | 7,665$3,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,601.78 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 65c | 5,938$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882.99 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66af…cecebacked No | 15c | 5,760$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,905.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 46c | 5,600$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.98 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 40c | 5,369$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.43 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 37c | 5,256$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,318.78 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 79c | 4,886$3,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,879.68 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 52c | 4,339$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 45c | 4,304$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.43 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 48c | 3,273$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.53 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 12c | 3,246$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.72 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed No | 26c | 3,108$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304.52 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 48c | 3,106$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.63 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 44c | 2,819$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.06 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 55c | 2,804$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.13 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 23c | 2,668$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.27 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 28c | 2,646$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.84 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…8997backed No | 20c | 2,616$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…5563backed Yes | 12c | 2,610$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 52c | 2,492$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.53 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 21c | 2,250$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 33c | 2,126$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.73 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 34c | 2,092$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.82 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed No | 64c | 1,963$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d7…6932backed Yes | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 46c | 1,918$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.81 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 22c | 1,900$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 36c | 1,759$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.71 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 46c | 1,697$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.9 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 1,647$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.2 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked Yes | 60c | 1,610$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 64c | 1,553$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 58c | 1,547$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.74 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 47c | 1,526$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.44 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 23c | 1,525$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.49 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 55c | 1,510$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.33 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 30c | 1,394$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.09 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,350$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…0edcbacked Yes | 43c | 1,347$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 40c | 1,333$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.2 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eea…5651backed Yes | 53c | 1,308$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 18c | 1,300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 53c | 1,257$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,216$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 76c | 1,105$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.36 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb09…6caabacked No | 30c | 1,092$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,073$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…7cd5backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…eb87backed No | 63c | 953.4$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcf…4c67backed Yes | 21c | 947.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 942.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…e750backed No | 54c | 922.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 27c | 910.25$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.87 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 64c | 800$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 24c | 799.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.36 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…a846backed Yes | 38c | 790$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 70c | 787.05$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.21 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 34c | 770$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.03 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…e387backed Yes | 46c | 739.75$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…5e02backed Yes | 54c | 722.48$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed No | 14c | 716.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…15a6backed Yes | 42c | 714.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…e66fbacked Yes | 14c | 713.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…b532backed Yes | 39c | 701.33$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 41c | 679.71$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.29 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 63c | 677.56$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.94 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…b8efbacked Yes | 57c | 676.07$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…cb5fbacked Yes | 56c | 673.77$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 50c | 662.99$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.06 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 30c | 657.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.28 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 49c | 640$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.2 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 58c | 634.9$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.83 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 605.21$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.86 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…998cbacked Yes | 63c | 593.04$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 38c | 575.11$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.54 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 35c | 574.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 572.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…d7a1backed No | 27c | 554.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 51c | 550$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 32c | 549.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.49 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 23c | 549.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…7817backed No | 46c | 548.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 34c | 515.33$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.69 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 64c | 514.11$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.08 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…a91fbacked Yes | 41c | 510.82$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…33ddbacked Yes | 66c | 504.6$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed No | 65c | 494.96$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 65c | 493.42$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.36 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Yes | 38c | 489.16$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…423bbacked No | 52c | 484.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…daf3backed Yes | 11c | 444.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 54c | 437.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.69 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…37b6backed No | 62c | 437.11$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.07 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 27c | 436.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 71c | 400$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.59 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bc…c11abacked No | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.