Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ba01b84505b019e8c3ace62e85916535bdd950c0f7d78a6c1c6077fcb9b625c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 9c | 4,216$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.93 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 10c | 4,047$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,126$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.65 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 939$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 7c | 756$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 549.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 470.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 17c | 409$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 4c | 320$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked Yes | 12c | 247.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 11c | 216.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 186$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 184.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9c…3421backed Yes | 9c | 147.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 16c | 93.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 18c | 76.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in September?this page
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia in September?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in September?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in September?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in September?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in September?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in September?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in September?No won
- Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.