Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump call Putin “strong” on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b9031442b89f816446376a02ba351befaaf0e4804c3d99cfe41e0b6e149c93e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 29c | 4,311$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.65 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 68c | 1,680$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.46 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,005$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.2 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 33c | 780.35$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.52 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 14c | 735.11$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.37 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 34c | 689.72$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e34…9cd8backed No | 62c | 618$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 70c | 504.2$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 39c | 444$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.84 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed No | 68c | 410.25$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 399.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 28c | 303.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.27 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 61c | 299.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…87d1backed Yes | 41c | 235.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 33c | 222$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe32…b63bbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked No | 66c | 189.31$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 65c | 180.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 38c | 179$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 25c | 167.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 33c | 158.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 65c | 157.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 60c | 153$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…9b59backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked No | 68c | 150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 66c | 140$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…c27ebacked Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 61c | 92.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…21d8backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…508fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e53…b3debacked Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…bbfbbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…1ecbbacked No | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…0570backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.