Middle East · resolved market
Houthi strike on Israel by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1f375ed09e85ca6a9e8c8300fd5591aa60a12cc40c609cdf4e1e381531884ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 0c | 19,053$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 78c | 13,832$10,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000.8 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 16c | 4,000$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.03 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 3,656$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,397$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 40c | 2,227$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.94 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…8ca8backed No | 1c | 2,073$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…687ebacked No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 13c | 1,846$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 1,600$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 60c | 1,438$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.6 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 37c | 1,435$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 39c | 1,225$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.2 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 38c | 1,217$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.52 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,214$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.55 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 12c | 1,166$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 12c | 1,166$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1124…6cc6backed No | 58c | 999.93$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 42c | 900.46$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.34 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 779.12$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.28 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d4…fb37backed No | 64c | 776.26$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…3373backed No | 1c | 771.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817d…9634backed No | 1c | 673.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 60c | 650$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 57c | 600.84$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.2 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 544.19$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.26 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 49c | 500$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed No | 33c | 480.18$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 459.51$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.89 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…099dbacked No | 65c | 441.89$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…4528backed No | 71c | 423$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 38c | 405.79$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.59 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ff…d637backed No | 51c | 389.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 66c | 378.97$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed No | 64c | 377$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.51 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 39c | 358.8$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…28a6backed No | 11c | 352.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 338.41$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.18 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 40c | 332.97$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.29 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…5113backed No | 9c | 306.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…f62bbacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 42c | 287.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.46 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 10c | 285.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 36c | 260.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…a091backed Yes | 44c | 228.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…40d1backed No | 9c | 221.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 36c | 215.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.82 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 41c | 201.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 30c | 184.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 41c | 182.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked No | 67c | 169.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…2955backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 52c | 156$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 43c | 149.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9908…3e8bbacked Yes | 39c | 134.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 59c | 133.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…4808backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…bb12backed Yes | 46c | 131.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 37c | 128.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 40c | 126$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364e…bd46backed Yes | 40c | 125.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…406ebacked Yes | 50c | 117.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d36…eeeabacked Yes | 43c | 116.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 42c | 111.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 60c | 111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 48c | 104.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…e932backed Yes | 42c | 98.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…5e05backed Yes | 44c | 86.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 60c | 74.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…e8dabacked Yes | 46c | 67.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…b277backed Yes | 41c | 67.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 44c | 59.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79a…a203backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 53.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…ea1dbacked Yes | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…5838backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…9bafbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…9016backed No | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…455dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…7dadbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…0593backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…9632backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…e2b3backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 58c | 38.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…359abacked Yes | 39c | 38.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…a839backed Yes | 47c | 38.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…2b8bbacked Yes | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthi strike on Israel by September 30?this page
- Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.