Middle East · resolved market
Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ccc8c3d34776a9a3933fa72aa8e7e0db58a916c4ce822fb9aee1bd69f73f09c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 5,988$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.59 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,113$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.99 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…9631backed Yes | 25c | 2,593$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 26c | 2,321$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.35 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 1,962$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.33 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…5f52backed No | 70c | 1,757$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,655$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 25c | 1,535$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.01 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 7c | 1,425$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 17c | 1,209$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.85 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 1,128$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.55 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,111$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.87 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,086$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.02 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 29c | 958.91$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.32 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 32c | 884.53$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.05 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 20c | 833.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.87 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 26c | 744.43$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.63 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 3c | 727.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 26c | 681.9$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.89 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 28c | 650.34$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.34 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364e…bd46backed Yes | 13c | 532.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 528.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…055abacked Yes | 45c | 504.45$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 40c | 463.41$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed Yes | 23c | 440.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 10c | 414.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 74c | 413.13$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 20c | 412.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4d…01c7backed Yes | 20c | 412$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 6c | 404.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 22c | 375.8$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…9b36backed Yes | 29c | 323.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 20c | 310.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked No | 77c | 298.25$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…b32abacked No | 79c | 253.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 77c | 243.61$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…687ebacked Yes | 35c | 243.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 73c | 236.91$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed Yes | 24c | 234$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 19c | 218.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…0991backed Yes | 16c | 217.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e14…6cadbacked Yes | 14c | 207.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 29c | 189.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…423bbacked No | 79c | 180.11$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…5663backed Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 59c | 155.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…e932backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 80c | 148.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 14c | 142.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…2955backed No | 74c | 134.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 132.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…fcc5backed Yes | 22c | 114.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 22c | 103.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8b…b957backed Yes | 30c | 101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d36…eeeabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…5a09backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed Yes | 23c | 87.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…08a3backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 23c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 37c | 68.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 67.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…951abacked Yes | 29c | 63.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 25c | 59.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 21c | 55.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eed…6a35backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…5e05backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 25c | 41.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…cafdbacked Yes | 29c | 38.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 30c | 37.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…0ea2backed Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…6477backed No | 77c | 24.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 71c | 23.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…dc95backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 77c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…b7d5backed No | 75c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…63e9backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?this page
- Houthi strike on Israel by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.