TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb79a…a203

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Music, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Music at 54 out of 100; worst Lol at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+474.7%+$94.94
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+300%+$75
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$28.97
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.4
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$13.69
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$10.54
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$18.33
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+59.2%+$16.39
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.63
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Argentina leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$11.76
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$12.27
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.6
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$27.49
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.57
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+150%+$150
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$20.41
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+63.9%+$63.93
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Houthi strike on Israel by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+54.6%+$109.25
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+60.1%+$76.32
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$13.48
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$58.4
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-48.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+67.5%+$81.61
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+68%+$68.04
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.36
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+2,303.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+4,706.9%+$470.69
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+284.6%+$56.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milanbacked PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovicbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.