Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd69784215865ef81c16f3cb8b0806d43acbcf284982789a7e014d1cef52e7478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $322,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $302,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 15,116$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa609…6844backed No | 0c | 12,806$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…3d31backed No | 0c | 10,807$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…c577backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…2986backed No | 0c | 7,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 12c | 5,100$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.21 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd511…e95ebacked No | 0c | 5,055$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1510…2402backed No | 0c | 4,620$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c64…46a6backed No | 1c | 3,370$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 3,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 5c | 3,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 51c | 2,912$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,704$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked No | 32c | 2,250$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 2,222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 73c | 2,158$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 31c | 2,032$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked No | 63c | 2,000$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 42c | 1,954$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.1 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes | 70c | 1,815$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 30c | 1,700$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.7 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 1,532$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 78c | 1,463$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.14 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 48c | 1,445$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 32c | 1,445$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.74 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 37c | 1,438$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.95 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed No | 70c | 1,414$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,398$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbe…3028backed Yes | 66c | 1,391$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,378$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.46 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 37c | 1,345$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.79 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 32c | 1,251$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 60c | 1,206$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 32c | 1,193$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 30c | 1,154$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,149$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 23c | 1,134$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 27c | 1,132$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 32c | 1,126$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 36c | 1,124$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.97 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 43c | 1,090$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.77 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 78c | 1,034$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…2d2cbacked No | 23c | 1,027$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 1,005$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.37 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 71c | 971$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.7 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 32c | 969$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed No | 63c | 963$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 66c | 953$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 37c | 952$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 54c | 937$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.02 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 23c | 908$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 26c | 902$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.81 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 77c | 900$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked No | 23c | 892$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 37c | 889$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 62c | 873.68$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.98 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 77c | 860$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked No | 70c | 854$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 68c | 851$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed No | 32c | 835$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 23c | 829$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 74c | 824$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 36c | 813$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 32c | 809$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe08…4516backed No | 51c | 802.85$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 64c | 799.98$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 77c | 797$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 38c | 788.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.78 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 37c | 787.96$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.41 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed No | 64c | 784.73$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 22c | 771$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 768.09$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.18 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 78c | 756$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 78c | 754$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 80c | 736$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 22c | 732$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.96 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes | 68c | 726$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 66c | 726$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.04 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 32c | 720$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed No | 23c | 711$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.53 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 77c | 707$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 77c | 705$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 32c | 704$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.28 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 23c | 692$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 77c | 679$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.17 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 69c | 678$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 33c | 668$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.44 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 36c | 664$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 38c | 651$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 77c | 649$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 30c | 648$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 79c | 635$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 30c | 629.24$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 78c | 628$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 46c | 626$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.96 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…f6b8backed Yes | 61c | 623.89$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 69c | 621$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.49 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked No | 62c | 614$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 32c | 614$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.