Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a2ca609a1685b37999c76386eb468a124b8e5cf6ff082bef83f02e7cf61f20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 70c | 6,625$4,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.97 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 6,321$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…81e6backed Yes | 1c | 2,970$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 54c | 1,588$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…fd20backed Yes | 54c | 1,525$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 44c | 1,499$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.23 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 10c | 1,277$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…6b00backed Yes | 4c | 1,126$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…2ccfbacked Yes | 46c | 1,095$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 58c | 946.22$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.03 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 53c | 801.17$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.5 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…f0f9backed No | 65c | 766.33$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdb…0cd5backed Yes | 35c | 766.33$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…ed5fbacked Yes | 10c | 747$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 741.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes | 27c | 735.71$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.23 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 727.1$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.84 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 684.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 65c | 650.79$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2a…baf3backed No | 62c | 611.44$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 60c | 585.51$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.38 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 579$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…4595backed Yes | 6c | 572.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed Yes | 18c | 561.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e36…de3dbacked No | 58c | 550$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…ae0dbacked Yes | 42c | 550$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 44c | 532.74$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.51 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 39c | 530.02$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.41 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 521.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 20c | 510.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 448.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 446.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 44c | 405.31$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 24c | 399.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…af70backed Yes | 6c | 312.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…552ebacked Yes | 67c | 300.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 27c | 297.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561c…7c72backed Yes | 73c | 275.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91c9…d319backed No | 72c | 255.46$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 55c | 247$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…2393backed No | 75c | 226.33$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 222.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed Yes | 54c | 222.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 201.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 26c | 192.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…741bbacked Yes | 49c | 185.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…6732backed No | 61c | 179.95$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 6c | 172.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5806…9b80backed Yes | 42c | 166.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 55c | 160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 58c | 151.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked No | 77c | 151.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…c87abacked No | 17c | 140.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 57c | 138.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 136.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 14c | 129.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 16c | 127.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 52c | 126.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…c514backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…23dfbacked No | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 45c | 100.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…d6f0backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb324…6f82backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +185%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 52c | 84.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39ff…d637backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked No | 34c | 80.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 78.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 26c | 75.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…545dbacked Yes | 18c | 75.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…17babacked No | 54c | 72.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b75…e051backed Yes | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…487cbacked Yes | 55c | 56.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…3cbcbacked No | 36c | 55.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593f…72b8backed Yes | 44c | 52.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…6a46backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 61c | 51.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe510…a998backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…c374backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…a783backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 49.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 36c | 46.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aec…8f3abacked No | 25c | 45.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.