Us Politics · resolved market
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6838ab852207316e601ef59185bf4eeacc316f078242e610ec6106c677ae5873
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 36c | 8,594$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.09 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,957$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.43 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 78c | 6,336$4,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.89 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 17c | 5,960$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.1 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 22c | 4,902$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.12 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,500$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 3,566$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 30c | 2,993$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.78 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 62c | 2,891$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.59 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 78c | 2,855$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.59 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 73c | 2,516$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 13c | 2,418$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.16 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,345$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.21 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…69d4backed Yes | 28c | 2,265$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 19c | 2,238$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.61 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…399cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,094$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,814$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.14 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,651$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.69 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 1,643$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.84 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 1,625$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,582$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…8fcdbacked No | 64c | 1,530$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 15c | 1,485$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 1,458$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.76 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 1,431$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.1 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fe…1779backed Yes | 19c | 1,424$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed No | 77c | 1,421$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 71c | 1,377$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.46 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 29c | 1,332$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.86 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 77c | 1,298$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.34 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 25c | 1,243$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.46 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Yes | 16c | 1,242$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 43c | 1,202$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.04 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 71c | 1,126$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.67 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 28c | 1,114$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.92 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…f3b0backed Yes | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 22c | 1,063$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.52 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…1bedbacked Yes | 2c | 1,025$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…feb2backed No | 76c | 1,003$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a5…3744backed Yes | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 11c | 999.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 64c | 963.9$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.05 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 37c | 950.64$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.01 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…7260backed No | 57c | 929.99$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 67c | 925.75$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.76 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed No | 65c | 898.8$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.73 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 30c | 882.4$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.35 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…3860backed Yes | 22c | 863.3$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked No | 66c | 857.37$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 63c | 850$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…a82fbacked Yes | 13c | 839.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…0986backed Yes | 40c | 826.81$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 70c | 818.87$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.32 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 29c | 802.45$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 47c | 798$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.75 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 76c | 756.37$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.64 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…b294backed Yes | 40c | 725.32$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes | 46c | 702$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 701.85$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…33d0backed No | 58c | 694.99$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 58c | 688.44$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.38 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…67b0backed Yes | 16c | 671.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…115fbacked No | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 64c | 635.29$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.37 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 33c | 632.8$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.82 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e2…da96backed No | 63c | 631.42$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…9e2ebacked No | 79c | 630$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aec…cac7backed Yes | 36c | 622.16$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 48c | 616.49$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.89 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c24…06edbacked Yes | 25c | 590.19$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 61c | 542.84$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.7 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…8414backed Yes | 38c | 526.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6949…a179backed No | 75c | 517.06$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…89efbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 10c | 498.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…7de9backed Yes | 10c | 491.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…a62abacked No | 62c | 483.36$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…90f4backed Yes | 10c | 476.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…f859backed No | 64c | 469.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 26c | 462.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 17c | 437.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked No | 57c | 434.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.01 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 73c | 432$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 3c | 431.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 59c | 429.02$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.72 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 5c | 410.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…203cbacked Yes | 32c | 400$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 44c | 399.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 32c | 397.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 13c | 395$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…35e7backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 23c | 363.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 56c | 361.52$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.14 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 11c | 359.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 79c | 340.73$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 47c | 330.96$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcace…f2f6backed No | 61c | 328.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.