Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06299ab06a783225946e405af4b684da640df545e6e2e5864ae9d76d9847f704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $649,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $602,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $649,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 0c | 67,085$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.87 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79a…a203backed No | 0c | 50,186$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…a50bbacked No | 2c | 36,870$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked No | 1c | 29,147$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.96 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…7368backed No | 0c | 20,253$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…db96backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed No | 1c | 15,030$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 33c | 14,746$4,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,892.45 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 72c | 14,146$10,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,211.08 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad7…b626backed No | 1c | 12,693$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 11,188$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 2c | 11,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed No | 3c | 10,420$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 5c | 8,975$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.2 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 1c | 7,816$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked No | 1c | 7,420$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked No | 64c | 6,233$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 29c | 6,224$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,407.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +236.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 10c | 6,162$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…d1ebbacked Yes | 36c | 5,870$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,765.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 62c | 5,664$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 6c | 5,298$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…c247backed No | 0c | 5,222$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed No | 1c | 5,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 63c | 4,622$2,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.18 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 2c | 4,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba7…fea3backed No | 3c | 4,100$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 4,015$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.14 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed No | 11c | 4,014$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.64 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked No | 2c | 3,646$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 5c | 3,634$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.69 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 2c | 3,467$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 29c | 3,399$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.98 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.99 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 64c | 3,000$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…88e3backed No | 4c | 2,933$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 65c | 2,815$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.69 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 80c | 2,796$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.41 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 4c | 2,645$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed No | 9c | 2,607$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.27 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 64c | 2,562$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 38c | 2,510$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.25 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32bb…894abacked No | 71c | 2,490$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 33c | 2,432$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.45 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 27c | 2,367$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.94 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed Yes | 45c | 2,326$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.84 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…bfaebacked Yes | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…d285backed No | 61c | 2,155$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…fa87backed No | 24c | 2,147$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 3c | 2,132$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 3c | 2,050$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 6c | 2,045$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed No | 4c | 2,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…63b4backed Yes | 31c | 1,935$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.48 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,910$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 6c | 1,889$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.35 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…3f81backed Yes | 29c | 1,843$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 68c | 1,753$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.48 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 3c | 1,615$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 46c | 1,607$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.36 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd444…cf6cbacked No | 68c | 1,480$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93a…0f5cbacked No | 70c | 1,440$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 1,400$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…1dd0backed No | 64c | 1,400$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac4…de57backed Yes | 37c | 1,337$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 8c | 1,327$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.35per pick | 41cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 69c | 1,307$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 2c | 1,306$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 78c | 1,178$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.62 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e76…2c4ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,176$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…1de4backed Yes | 35c | 1,152$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 10c | 1,111$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,110$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.81 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566b…c152backed No | 4c | 1,101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked No | 7c | 1,053$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,019$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.2 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c3…5152backed Yes | 30c | 1,003$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.33 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 55c | 964.44$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.54 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…b63ebacked No | 17c | 944.2$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…9a51backed No | 4c | 936.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 74c | 900$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddb…cd80backed No | 17c | 895.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 6c | 886.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…ab15backed No | 44c | 855.4$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 814.32$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.89 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…521cbacked No | 62c | 811.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 2c | 800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed Yes | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked No | 13c | 785.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 752.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…f4e9backed No | 16c | 727.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…81eabacked Yes | 37c | 708.44$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa71f…4499backed No | 4c | 705.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…f779backed No | 3c | 700.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…515abacked Yes | 44c | 700$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…502bbacked No | 56c | 700$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.