Space · resolved market
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbb54421965612561a5f6d33a06c206eb55e13f354a5b1ff2f2a245c50e8dfab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed No | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 10c | 2,771$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 6c | 2,311$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…c0f1backed No | 9c | 2,179$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 4c | 2,148$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 2,140$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,276$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 3c | 1,074$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Yes | 65c | 1,064$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 1,026$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 23c | 899.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8892…c9eebacked No | 6c | 823.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf1…ffb3backed No | 62c | 782.79$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 2c | 644.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…11a6backed No | 42c | 568.71$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 57c | 565.57$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed No | 8c | 537.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 3c | 510.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed No | 19c | 509.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed No | 30c | 399.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 64c | 393.93$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 13c | 393.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 3c | 365.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 11c | 357.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 39c | 330.51$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 25c | 222.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…c7a7backed No | 8c | 205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…84b3backed No | 34c | 197.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…1982backed No | 11c | 185.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 62c | 180$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 32c | 167.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…9318backed No | 20c | 151$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 55c | 146.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 38c | 139.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…f484backed No | 22c | 137.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…e23ebacked Yes | 78c | 125.73$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 24c | 118.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 25c | 116.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 34c | 112.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 55c | 111.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…b89dbacked No | 39c | 110.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…43efbacked Yes | 70c | 107.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…0ba6backed No | 13c | 107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 32c | 106.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf203…2cb2backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…e7cabacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…cf6bbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1000…b7b4backed No | 20c | 98.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 25c | 90.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…af21backed Yes | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…49edbacked No | 26c | 76.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…fbfabacked Yes | 70c | 71.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…2ba7backed No | 42c | 71.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…32ccbacked No | 21c | 70.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…8223backed Yes | 74c | 67.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…373bbacked No | 26c | 58.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb9…e5cbbacked No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…084ebacked Yes | 67c | 43.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b77…886fbacked Yes | 79c | 37.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed No | 58c | 34.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…f7b4backed Yes | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked Yes | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3858…4d71backed Yes | 64c | 31.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f14…7c4cbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…d9f6backed Yes | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e238backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…151cbacked Yes | 69c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…55d9backed Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…d95dbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.