Ukraine · resolved market
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x855893bae6050fcaef492f3ab4072fd66cb075b13bc63df7b759237fb7d7fd2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 19c | 17,051$3,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,231 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 14c | 7,959$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.02 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 29c | 7,098$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.6 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…2da0backed No | 78c | 5,910$4,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 79c | 3,370$2,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.03 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 14c | 2,445$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.04 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c17…83c8backed No | 78c | 2,387$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.99 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 2,354$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.24 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 21c | 2,270$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.25 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…5f52backed No | 72c | 2,150$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 17c | 2,054$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.67 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 26c | 1,906$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.24 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked No | 78c | 1,826$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,665$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.86 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…c336backed Yes | 9c | 1,444$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 78c | 1,417$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 12c | 1,341$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.26 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 20c | 1,302$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.64 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 20c | 1,192$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.94 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed Yes | 41c | 1,171$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 24c | 1,140$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 80c | 1,066$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.89 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…b041backed Yes | 23c | 1,005$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed No | 78c | 996.44$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…5d61backed Yes | 22c | 910$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 75c | 899.99$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 79c | 886.16$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.16 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 80c | 838.81$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 820.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 21c | 728.09$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.37 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…20c5backed Yes | 28c | 724.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 78c | 714.58$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.75 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 75c | 671.48$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.66 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 73c | 633.89$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.25 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…08a1backed Yes | 4c | 628.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…c681backed Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 14c | 607.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…8529backed Yes | 34c | 600$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes | 9c | 600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 71c | 599.98$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 69c | 573.76$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 73c | 555$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 79c | 537.59$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.09 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 78c | 525$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d5…d45abacked Yes | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…500bbacked No | 79c | 499.98$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 10c | 478.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…b4f4backed Yes | 21c | 462$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4d…01c7backed Yes | 5c | 422.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…462ebacked Yes | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 403.51$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8037…f444backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…2bd4backed No | 78c | 384.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…7ed4backed Yes | 15c | 382$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…0eb7backed Yes | 37c | 372.25$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 78c | 351.96$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 28c | 350$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 342.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 62c | 324.27$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…a40abacked Yes | 26c | 323.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde31…4f59backed Yes | 26c | 307.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…31f1backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ea…0882backed Yes | 28c | 299.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -85%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…a154backed Yes | 21c | 291.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…768fbacked No | 76c | 269.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 71c | 269.01$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 24c | 255.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed No | 68c | 246.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 236.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 40c | 230$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…fef6backed Yes | 24c | 204.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 60c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9944…b035backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…dd27backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe9…e00ebacked No | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 6c | 199.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 23c | 199.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 25c | 196$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 184.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 27c | 183.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 12c | 179.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 7c | 178.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c8…f309backed Yes | 24c | 169.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…1e3dbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…bcb2backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?this page
- Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.