Ukraine · resolved market
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3872a48f355f2ea7e345b9ce99e0f8b1b2752db77c1ccc3828a375c5d2cac884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 14c | 6,110$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.85 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 78c | 3,946$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.43 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 17c | 3,046$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.83 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,200$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.47 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…5d61backed Yes | 30c | 1,637$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 16c | 1,435$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 4c | 1,207$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 1,191$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 6c | 1,093$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed No | 80c | 930.38$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…9830backed Yes | 24c | 825.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…b4f4backed Yes | 9c | 801.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked No | 79c | 799.28$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…7ab2backed Yes | 14c | 750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 20c | 643$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2113…81cfbacked Yes | 43c | 461.66$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 6c | 449.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 24c | 411.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…2d5bbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 76c | 353.78$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d34…5aaebacked Yes | 35c | 283.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 80c | 251.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5e…3805backed Yes | 24c | 209.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 207.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 201$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 23c | 200.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 17c | 181.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 21c | 167$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 74c | 147.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecb…1caebacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fb…71b7backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…31edbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b0…3c86backed Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff4…3dd0backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…4929backed Yes | 23c | 42.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…2a75backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…f22abacked No | 63c | 33.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…516bbacked No | 79c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…8b94backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca79…a60ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by October 31?this page
- Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.