Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Iran in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77b5bfe44beb0641905f76ee2f32f96f47d8863bcad586678224a6dc02f03ad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $427,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $647,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $427,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55af…520dbacked Yes | 13c | 36,801$4,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,760.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 7c | 9,865$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869f…82c6backed Yes | 10c | 7,897$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…b244backed Yes | 8c | 4,386$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.01 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 2c | 3,995$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…5990backed Yes | 12c | 3,085$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 78c | 2,690$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.22 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,584$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,810$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…087cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,469$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…8de2backed Yes | 3c | 1,448$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 75c | 1,438$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.58 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 1,355$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 1,318$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…e030backed Yes | 12c | 1,282$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…d8c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,236$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 7c | 1,221$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 20c | 1,171$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked No | 78c | 1,084$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 10c | 999.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 23c | 920.93$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.08 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 5c | 871.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…ab78backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc195…338fbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…532ebacked Yes | 25c | 644.32$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…9bfabacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d2…000abacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 551$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…4228backed No | 77c | 490$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 475$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 77c | 468.81$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 26c | 450$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…5d32backed Yes | 3c | 446.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 77c | 441.73$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…3afcbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…23e6backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…f08dbacked Yes | 3c | 410$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 25c | 392.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…ae0fbacked Yes | 11c | 344.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 26c | 323.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 80c | 310$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…db9cbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…d63fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 11c | 295.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…fc8fbacked Yes | 24c | 291.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f50…4fa1backed Yes | 23c | 286.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…f4e9backed Yes | 24c | 204.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 200.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…770dbacked No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 10c | 189.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x010e…f4b5backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…a344backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015f…30d1backed Yes | 26c | 178.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…1490backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…d869backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 11c | 134$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac1…718abacked No | 77c | 133.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…df48backed Yes | 23c | 129.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa053…7502backed Yes | 23c | 129.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…b48ebacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…7c4fbacked Yes | 24c | 127.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…a963backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…58bcbacked Yes | 11c | 121.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 24c | 119.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…f2d8backed Yes | 27c | 119.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…b056backed No | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…b711backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…e05abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…62b3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…959cbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9a…2c2abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…2542backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…0793backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…71dbbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1452…a409backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…d41bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b02…a231backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…bc2dbacked Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 18c | 57.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…cbd8backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…65cfbacked Yes | 26c | 57.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…7d90backed Yes | 25c | 52.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…d0b6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…f453backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…65fabacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…ec02backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc93…55edbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.