Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d0a3e5b9614214e2f6bdc6d3b57eca08c31c215b6b61d8b4bb7ed5718c8a9c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 67c | 10,477$7,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,447.06 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 55c | 5,359$2,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.09 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…a035backed No | 70c | 4,973$3,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,468.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f2c0backed No | 39c | 4,789$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 4c | 3,205$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 55c | 2,208$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.83 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 41c | 2,038$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.31 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 34c | 1,976$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.64 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed No | 52c | 1,943$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…1cedbacked No | 53c | 1,901$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 32c | 1,778$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.25 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 64c | 1,560$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.42 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 73c | 1,490$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,477$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.78 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c7…6378backed Yes | 67c | 1,073$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 14c | 998$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.28 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 8c | 945.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.57 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 2c | 925.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 40c | 902.55$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 32c | 846.44$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.95 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 38c | 816.23$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.08 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes | 47c | 806.2$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.24 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…478abacked Yes | 57c | 803.89$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +225.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e8…0b17backed No | 74c | 718.23$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…10b0backed No | 74c | 676.59$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…5517backed No | 31c | 650$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666e…aa2dbacked No | 33c | 650$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 58c | 629.53$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.32 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…a1b6backed No | 70c | 605.54$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a29…c90ebacked No | 58c | 604.15$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 55c | 584.37$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.15 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 42c | 563.61$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.89 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed Yes | 38c | 529.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.03 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 74c | 525.83$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 58c | 514.32$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.57 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 62c | 492.46$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 69c | 491.01$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 71c | 477.45$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 49c | 475$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.09 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 57c | 461.87$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 35c | 429.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 40c | 428.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.59 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 55c | 411.57$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 68c | 400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…42d9backed No | 26c | 394.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 39c | 393.61$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…481fbacked No | 55c | 368.51$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked No | 43c | 368.07$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.74 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…d7a1backed No | 54c | 367.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked No | 49c | 357.85$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked Yes | 78c | 330.58$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed No | 41c | 324.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 70c | 286.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…c7debacked No | 38c | 280.9$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 48c | 280$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.66 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked No | 56c | 273.6$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 55c | 273$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 33c | 269.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…8882backed No | 45c | 259.17$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…933dbacked Yes | 49c | 254.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked No | 44c | 243.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 33c | 242.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 67c | 240$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 235.84$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 43c | 233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 33c | 228.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 52c | 224.15$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.85 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…0eb3backed No | 50c | 219.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…1d03backed No | 55c | 208.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…7db5backed No | 24c | 207.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 54c | 203.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50db…8847backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Yes | 67c | 199.3$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5719…8513backed No | 31c | 192.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5f…3d96backed Yes | 59c | 190.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 65c | 178.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…c56bbacked No | 57c | 176.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed No | 34c | 172$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked No | 45c | 164.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6400backed No | 33c | 164.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 61c | 157.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 32c | 157.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…78a1backed Yes | 62c | 153.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212c…8e4abacked No | 51c | 152.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 57c | 151.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 62c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 68c | 147.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…1d8fbacked No | 70c | 147.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 68c | 146.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…0a94backed No | 73c | 137.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.