Ukraine · resolved market
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af949104f18e3e9ffb74e26710b2f5625d8b230a58f378e3e56cb069f3de0ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 15c | 16,221$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.37 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 14c | 7,537$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.76 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes | 18c | 5,400$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 5,379$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.75 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 80c | 4,855$3,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.54 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 33c | 4,235$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.69 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…1778backed No | 79c | 3,537$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 15c | 3,448$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 20c | 3,100$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.78 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,806$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.67 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 2,800$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 23c | 2,678$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.7 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 17c | 2,457$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.75 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 3c | 2,340$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 77c | 2,055$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.37 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c17…83c8backed No | 78c | 2,009$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.18 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 1,999$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.74 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 73c | 1,659$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.07 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,657$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.13 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 14c | 1,652$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 32c | 1,587$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.52 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 11c | 1,585$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.79 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fd…7cedbacked Yes | 5c | 1,452$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 12c | 1,450$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 1,337$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.84 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 46c | 1,274$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.21 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…85f1backed Yes | 33c | 1,226$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 59c | 1,207$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.02 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 24c | 1,206$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.29 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…aa45backed Yes | 14c | 1,185$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…ff4abacked Yes | 41c | 1,175$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 13c | 1,163$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.25 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,156$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.59 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 78c | 1,086$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.72 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 33c | 1,043$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.79 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 57c | 985.05$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 16c | 950$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 897.8$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.63 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…65a2backed Yes | 30c | 894.69$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9d…bb71backed Yes | 3c | 860.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 851.66$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.08 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 80c | 783.94$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 66c | 682.82$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.81 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 10c | 661.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 25c | 652.3$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.95 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 72c | 641.64$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 9c | 617.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 56c | 616.04$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.85 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 17c | 614$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 18c | 591.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.51 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc555…b513backed Yes | 15c | 589.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 15c | 541.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 15c | 541.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked No | 65c | 540.72$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.83 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 20c | 503.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…bbffbacked Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 70c | 498.03$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 15c | 492.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 57c | 485.54$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.76 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…e591backed No | 73c | 468$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 16c | 461.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 68c | 450$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…4af5backed Yes | 19c | 450$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 60c | 447.75$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes | 45c | 425$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.55 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 65c | 404.01$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.93 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed Yes | 19c | 387.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked Yes | 26c | 384.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 51c | 380$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…3437backed Yes | 16c | 367.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778f…86bebacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb5…f974backed Yes | 15c | 325.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 69c | 323.35$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…8529backed Yes | 32c | 315$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 303.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed No | 70c | 292.03$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…761cbacked Yes | 19c | 282.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…0cdbbacked No | 71c | 278.89$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…79a6backed No | 72c | 275.1$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 28c | 250$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 69c | 249.81$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 57c | 245.95$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 14c | 230$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980c…01b9backed Yes | 19c | 226.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…34b0backed No | 73c | 218.05$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e0…ba2abacked Yes | 50c | 217.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 49c | 215.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 204.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…c756backed Yes | 20c | 202.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…2e8fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?this page
- NATO downs another Russian drone by December 31?No won
- NATO downs another Russian drone by November 30?No won
- NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.