Ukraine · resolved market
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97a18acb6fcdcf40312bb465df8c7100fb7c185e46d2c1676008e2673cff70bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21c3…de29backed Yes | 5c | 6,057$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 18c | 3,458$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.88 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,767$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.53 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6614…39cfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,606$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 5c | 1,565$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 23c | 1,546$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 14c | 1,502$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.85 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 5c | 1,110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 24c | 1,093$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed No | 80c | 1,038$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 17c | 968.81$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 22c | 918.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 913.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 10c | 879.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 25c | 855$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 15c | 800$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 770.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 741.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 21c | 684.46$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 10c | 660$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 3c | 634.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 68c | 533.06$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.73 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes | 35c | 522.71$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…7ab2backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d46…a6bfbacked Yes | 24c | 446.75$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 16c | 400$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 16c | 391.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…a51abacked Yes | 13c | 359.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…0239backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 24c | 299.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 17c | 264.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 31c | 260.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 16c | 222$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e17…00d1backed Yes | 19c | 221.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5e…3805backed Yes | 24c | 207.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8029…cac3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 14c | 197.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 14c | 189.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefb…7392backed Yes | 13c | 169.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…fad3backed Yes | 21c | 166.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…2d5bbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…f5d9backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 15c | 151.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…32ccbacked Yes | 10c | 148.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…05a3backed Yes | 27c | 147.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 65c | 146.58$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…4aabbacked No | 78c | 146.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…8181backed Yes | 12c | 131.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 17c | 109.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 18c | 106.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8591…43f6backed Yes | 28c | 102.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 73c | 101$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f6…9b1fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…16b1backed Yes | 11c | 96.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 72c | 69.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…1431backed Yes | 31c | 65.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 21c | 61.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9d…bb71backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…be95backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 79c | 50.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 65c | 50.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 69c | 42.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…6d17backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…dc95backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed No | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…176cbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…abe0backed No | 65c | 19.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?this page
- NATO downs another Russian drone by December 31?No won
- NATO downs another Russian drone by November 30?No won
- NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.