Ukraine · resolved market
NATO downs another Russian drone by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd69bb3e836f197604e8adea058b673dc7a9e4f3425351c06644136e5616a84c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 9c | 4,989$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.81 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 2,146$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.35 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 10c | 1,710$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 7c | 1,454$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 3c | 1,304$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…3526backed Yes | 7c | 1,228$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,174$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 4c | 1,006$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 999.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7b…48e2backed Yes | 5c | 741.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 7c | 545.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 444$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes | 7c | 405.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 316.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 301.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 259.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 5c | 238.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 20c | 220.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 206.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 205$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 14c | 173.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 19c | 151$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 8c | 142.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 9c | 112.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 19c | 112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +94%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d7…e193backed Yes | 14c | 90.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 76.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…5670backed No | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed Yes | 43c | 33.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…1cf1backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…2371backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NATO downs another Russian drone by December 31?this page
- NATO downs another Russian drone by November 30?No won
- NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?No won
- NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.