Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21c3ebd6f0d85a9a78c851ef4485d967d91e890093f5474eb675324c7595a124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,956,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,829,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,956,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 798 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 42c | 159,265$67,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,032.47 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 56c | 135,267$76,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,384.17 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 45c | 125,917$56,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,318.55 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 56c | 117,436$66,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,063.78 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 41c | 109,070$44,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,747.89 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 61c | 71,258$43,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,505.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Yes | 46c | 61,917$28,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,402.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…fa31backed No | 60c | 60,337$36,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,029.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…8f51backed No | 61c | 39,973$24,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,580 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Yes | 47c | 38,015$17,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,225.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 13c | 37,360$4,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,679.55 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 41c | 31,340$12,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,488.49 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 30,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 44c | 23,495$10,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,128.38 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 27c | 23,093$6,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,862.56 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 1c | 20,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed Yes | 38c | 20,000$7,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 41c | 18,452$7,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,875.61 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 49c | 17,823$8,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,797.04 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 50c | 17,474$8,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,705.61 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…0920backed Yes | 43c | 16,955$7,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,704.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 37c | 16,419$6,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,405.02 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 57c | 15,691$8,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,941.14 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 49c | 13,837$6,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,744.29 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 13,151$7,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,901.58 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…a8ddbacked No | 34c | 12,766$4,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,308.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 23c | 12,730$2,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,942.74 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 48c | 12,632$6,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,611.83 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…b070backed No | 15c | 10,931$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 26c | 10,519$2,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,822.17 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 15c | 10,088$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,542.48 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 32c | 10,034$3,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,814.26 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.01 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…c1debacked No | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 44c | 9,917$4,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,564.01 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 37c | 9,829$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,239.63 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 42c | 9,285$3,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,403.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 53c | 9,281$4,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,394.26 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 61c | 8,845$5,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,393.95 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes | 51c | 8,841$4,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,342 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 47c | 8,710$4,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,655.5 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 44c | 8,672$3,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,856.63 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 43c | 7,825$3,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,441.75 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 74c | 7,677$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.63 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 15c | 7,300$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,222.69 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 37c | 6,996$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 76c | 6,534$4,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,940.88 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked No | 1c | 6,471$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 29c | 6,462$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.05 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 55c | 6,422$3,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900.9 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 31c | 6,200$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 30c | 6,035$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,196.95 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 39c | 6,000$2,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,688.56 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 74c | 5,990$4,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.33 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed No | 59c | 5,970$3,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 69c | 5,928$4,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.92 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 21c | 5,900$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,676.22 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 44c | 5,812$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.52 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed No | 53c | 5,754$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,067.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 27c | 5,723$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,177.95 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 20c | 5,659$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,539.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 24c | 5,574$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.02 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 29c | 5,513$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes | 43c | 5,451$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,130.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 41c | 5,445$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,198.46 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 59c | 5,306$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.59 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…1252backed No | 58c | 5,173$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 24c | 5,055$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,851.41 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed No | 64c | 5,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…a0d0backed Yes | 71c | 5,000$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…a086backed No | 57c | 4,921$2,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,788 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 47c | 4,615$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.49 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 65c | 4,513$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.86 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 71c | 4,500$3,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 40c | 4,500$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 52c | 4,400$2,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,268 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 27c | 4,289$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,137.05 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 41c | 4,225$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.05 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 71c | 4,109$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.93 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,520 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…508abacked Yes | 16c | 3,930$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,286.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…819ebacked No | 76c | 3,909$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,978.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 72cpaid | -74%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 57c | 3,858$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 57c | 3,771$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.91 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 3,766$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.49 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 61c | 3,700$2,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 25c | 3,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 18c | 3,446$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.15 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed Yes | 22c | 3,292$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 28c | 3,153$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.61 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…0fa0backed Yes | 38c | 3,091$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 53c | 3,003$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.48 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked No | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 52c | 2,971$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.33 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 28c | 2,887$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.31 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 14c | 2,865$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.78 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 28c | 2,862$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.81 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 41c | 2,850$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 36c | 2,837$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.18 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.