TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,956,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,829,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,956,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 798 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes42c159,265$67,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,032.4737740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No56c135,267$76,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,384.175141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes45c125,917$56,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,318.5551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No56c117,436$66,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,063.783141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes41c109,070$44,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,747.898137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No61c71,258$43,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,505.921643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a1…7833backed Yes46c61,917$28,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,402.991050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcd…fa31backed No60c60,337$36,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,029.781553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0d…8f51backed No61c39,973$24,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,580250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes47c38,015$17,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,225.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes13c37,360$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,679.5536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes41c31,340$12,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,488.494445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No0c30,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7710634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes44c23,495$10,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,128.388845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes27c23,093$6,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,862.5626423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No1c20,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251711.8%2 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+91.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Yes38c20,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,400450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes41c18,452$7,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,875.6142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No49c17,823$8,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,797.0419531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes50c17,474$8,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,705.6135347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e5…0920backed Yes43c16,955$7,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,704.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes37c16,419$6,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,405.0234440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No57c15,691$8,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,941.1416743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No49c13,837$6,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,744.2916246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No60c13,151$7,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,901.5840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x608c…a8ddbacked No34c12,766$4,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,308.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No23c12,730$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,942.7411728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes48c12,632$6,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,611.8321259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0099…b070backed No15c10,931$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes26c10,519$2,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,822.1717934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes15c10,088$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,542.488143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes32c10,034$3,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,814.262429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.013748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbed…c1debacked No0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes44c9,917$4,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,564.0119930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes37c9,829$3,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,239.6331241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes42c9,285$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,403.39875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+87.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes53c9,281$4,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,394.2648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No61c8,845$5,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,393.9510837%40 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes51c8,841$4,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3421258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes47c8,710$4,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,655.517646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked Yes44c8,672$3,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,856.635042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes43c7,825$3,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,441.757462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes74c7,677$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.638056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes15c7,300$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,222.6910426%27 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No37c6,996$2,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,563.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No76c6,534$4,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,940.883953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1332…deacbacked No1c6,471$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No29c6,462$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.054126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes55c6,422$3,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,900.94650%23 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No31c6,200$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.46922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-67.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes30c6,035$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,196.951764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes39c6,000$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,688.564537.8%17 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes74c5,990$4,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.338739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed No59c5,970$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,496.031838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes69c5,928$4,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.9220336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes21c5,900$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,676.223823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No44c5,812$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.528036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed No53c5,754$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,067.87714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-75.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes27c5,723$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,177.9520736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169a…c46abacked Yes20c5,659$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,539.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes24c5,574$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,263.0215232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe797…2b36backed No29c5,513$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.43714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes43c5,451$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,130.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+45.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes41c5,445$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,198.465532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No59c5,306$3,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.599154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7177…1252backed No58c5,173$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes24c5,055$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,851.4112634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed No64c5,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2002055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6508333.7%28 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…a0d0backed Yes71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4501154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4324…a086backed No57c4,921$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes47c4,615$2,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.4917755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No65c4,513$2,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.867252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No71c4,500$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,21522547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes40c4,500$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7054759.6%28 W · 19 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+169.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No52c4,400$2,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,26815626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes27c4,289$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.0511141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes41c4,225$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,473.055616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No71c4,109$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.933351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes12c4,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5201361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+62.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0891…508abacked Yes16c3,930$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,286.1966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.42per pick24cpaid+251.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5fbe…819ebacked No76c3,909$2,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.24520%1 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick72cpaid-74%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes57c3,858$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.042123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes57c3,771$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.917542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c3,766$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,530.4967841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No61c3,700$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2713438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes25c3,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+143.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No18c3,446$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.153246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed Yes22c3,292$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5774341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes28c3,153$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.6134143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…0fa0backed Yes38c3,091$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,916.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes53c3,003$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.4812138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked No51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5301338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No52c2,971$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.3326138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes28c2,887$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.3138237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No14c2,865$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.7819428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f71…1016backed Yes28c2,862$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.813132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes41c2,850$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.382347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes36c2,837$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.183537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.