Us Politics · resolved market
Another US military action against Iran by Tuesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26eb3ee5af5a1d2d8f15e239d434f6e5e30dfa9d3ee6ea2faf1a784348776157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 54,000$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 0c | 13,218$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 10,906$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.24 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,570$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.67 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1c…acecbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 8c | 9,165$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 5,700$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 3c | 2,883$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 3c | 2,749$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388c…81b0backed Yes | 10c | 1,919$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f09…f021backed Yes | 2c | 1,830$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 6c | 1,495$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 31c | 1,426$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 1,234$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,204$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,045$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…1071backed Yes | 2c | 962.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed No | 76c | 799.97$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 65c | 715.89$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…49cdbacked Yes | 3c | 697.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 74c | 673.6$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.6 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 64c | 671.31$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.67 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bf…cf2bbacked Yes | 17c | 572.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…7297backed Yes | 6c | 542.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 510.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 78c | 500$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 3c | 496.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 68c | 320$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…cda5backed Yes | 33c | 300.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…64dfbacked Yes | 34c | 294.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 17c | 288.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b4a7backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 70c | 260$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…d992backed Yes | 23c | 257.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…cf5abacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 74c | 201.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…e8b4backed Yes | 18c | 199.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5744…9093backed Yes | 29c | 162$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…a83fbacked No | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 78c | 149.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…1ff2backed Yes | 31c | 144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 77c | 132.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 22c | 121.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…1f6abacked Yes | 36c | 92.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b3…4151backed Yes | 31c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a4…1b15backed Yes | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38f…1ad5backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3448…0246backed Yes | 36c | 51.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 78c | 51.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +720.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…8b20backed No | 78c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafe…f9c1backed Yes | 31c | 34.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 79c | 31.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…e321backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.