Us Politics · resolved market
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331d5dd11c5c7371d049361f8d3145a3d8bbd11cc3a5f3ac853bcfeca2568021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 76c | 29,882$22,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,236.91 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 18c | 6,759$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 23c | 5,446$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…02bdbacked Yes | 25c | 5,271$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,007$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 16c | 4,896$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 5c | 4,807$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.55 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 62c | 4,574$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.85 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,855$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,581$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…35cfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,548$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…9bfabacked Yes | 27c | 3,381$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 9c | 3,087$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.24 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…67fbbacked Yes | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 21c | 2,639$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 16c | 2,503$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…cb66backed Yes | 2c | 2,435$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 55c | 2,353$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.43 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,241$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.55 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 42c | 2,100$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.58 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,677$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed No | 70c | 1,535$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,505$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…8c8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,438$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,429$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.81 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,417$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,332$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 9c | 1,094$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2689…1eb4backed Yes | 30c | 1,011$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 29c | 977.7$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…0800backed Yes | 14c | 877.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 70c | 867.06$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 816.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 808.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 29c | 800$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.1 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked No | 64c | 766.67$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…eb02backed Yes | 28c | 721.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…b4dfbacked Yes | 28c | 717.32$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…4d49backed Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 707.33$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 20c | 698.3$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 80c | 691.76$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 77c | 666$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.23 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 23c | 635.51$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 75c | 623.85$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 33c | 613.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…3348backed Yes | 17c | 606.61$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +313.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 27c | 605$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 41c | 588$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 75c | 537.64$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…bc2dbacked Yes | 19c | 508.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 24c | 501.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 488.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 21c | 487.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…7862backed Yes | 16c | 450$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 404.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 26c | 389.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3f…de34backed Yes | 27c | 373.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 69c | 363.24$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6968…8600backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 36c | 353.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 46c | 325.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 75c | 300.39$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 28c | 297.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 29c | 292$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 17c | 291$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 6c | 279.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 72c | 278.53$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 47c | 277.84$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 60c | 270.63$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ab…4301backed Yes | 16c | 254.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 25c | 254.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…33babacked Yes | 21c | 244.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a7…8911backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 207.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 204.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…56e8backed Yes | 29c | 204.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 58c | 204.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.55 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8a12backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…0978backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…e5c0backed Yes | 51c | 195.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 76c | 182.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 176.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed No | 57c | 174.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…74adbacked Yes | 29c | 172.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 29c | 169.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5575…4894backed Yes | 30c | 169.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 26c | 168.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…3853backed Yes | 36c | 163.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.