TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,972
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,674

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,972 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d9f…9790backed No76c29,882$22,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,236.915240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes18c6,759$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f71…1016backed Yes23c5,446$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.291315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc875…02bdbacked Yes25c5,271$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb678…f74dbacked Yes0c5,007$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.551540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes16c4,896$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes5c4,807$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.552520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No62c4,574$2,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.8517850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c3,855$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes26c3,581$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.621735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…35cfbacked Yes2c3,548$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…9bfabacked Yes27c3,381$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+111.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes9c3,087$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.242528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes17c3,000$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4955433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf414…67fbbacked Yes32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes21c2,639$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.51633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes16c2,503$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e08…cb66backed Yes2c2,435$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No55c2,353$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.435451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes11c2,241$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.55219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes42c2,100$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.587447.3%35 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes6c1,677$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8318322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x335d…c9c3backed No70c1,535$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes18c1,505$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6de…8c8abacked Yes2c1,438$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes31c1,429$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.813228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c1,417$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.872222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked Yes3c1,332$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-72.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes9c1,094$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1518516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2689…1eb4backed Yes30c1,011$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes29c977.7$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid+84.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b36…0800backed Yes14c877.38$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.12650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+180.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x937e…db42backed No70c867.06$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.8862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c816.35$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.271,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes3c808.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.498331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes29c800$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.128320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfade…283bbacked No64c766.67$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.671250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d9c…eb02backed Yes28c721.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4418…b4dfbacked Yes28c717.32$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506c…4d49backed Yes28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes20c707.33$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5955618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes20c698.3$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.385825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c65…3e45backed No80c691.76$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No77c666$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.238058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Yes23c635.51$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.031020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b74…778cbacked Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+65.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No75c623.85$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.735735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes33c613.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49a5…3348backed Yes17c606.61$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.57580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+313.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes27c605$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.051010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-75.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes41c588$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No75c537.64$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.646634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2911…bc2dbacked Yes19c508.67$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1670%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes24c501.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.331526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0394…3ef9backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes13c488.57$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2933627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes21c487.6$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.147045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c3f…7862backed Yes16c450$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes6c404.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3314624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8439522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes26c389.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3f…de34backed Yes27c373.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No69c363.24$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1128169.1%56 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5c1…3152backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6968…8600backed Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-67%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes36c353.11$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5413138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes46c325.08$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.822937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No75c300.39$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3916544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602564%16 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes28c297.86$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.775935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes29c292$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.746028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x247d…7d27backed Yes17c291$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes6c279.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185726.3%15 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No72c278.53$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0522347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x717e…6498backed Yes47c277.84$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes60c270.63$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.714837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ab…4301backed Yes16c254.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes25c254.53$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.995431.5%17 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d0…33babacked Yes21c244.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a7…8911backed Yes14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c207.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.671,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes14c204.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5336527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c7…56e8backed Yes29c204.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No58c204.18$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5519638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4895…0a83backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…0978backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x795d…e5c0backed Yes51c195.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No76c182.11$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.094259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes14c176.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd35…2bb6backed No57c174.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.751060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+57.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8eab…74adbacked Yes29c172.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes29c169.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.761428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5575…4894backed Yes30c169.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+91.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed Yes26c168.86$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.36358.7%37 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5776…3853backed Yes36c163.71$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.