TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Another Israel strike on Damascus by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52b7…4597backed No51c7,254$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,581.4412654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes47c4,341$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.454835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,879$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb85d…4ac4backed Yes45c2,739$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.623161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No55c2,391$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.9837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No75c2,354$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5938552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes20c2,308$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.8542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xddc0…3a00backed No50c2,250$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.742548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc0…8a4dbacked Yes40c1,803$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.961910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-76.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes20c1,689$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.435425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes37c1,600$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59515626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed No79c1,502$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.921643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes27c1,486$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.115827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes18c1,432$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.915913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No29c1,250$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.53762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes6c1,174$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.78617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd87d…52f9backed Yes28c1,118$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.069530.5%29 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes56c1,111$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.697040%28 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes24c1,091$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.8420823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e5…5bb5backed No59c1,036$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.212433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No48c1,001$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.5248630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No53c926.74$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.0433337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes11c888.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed Yes16c884.31$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3837…fbb3backed Yes10c811.14$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes47c784.31$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.078137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No52c755.1$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.8731649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed No29c720.81$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.311190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.32per pick58cpaid+69.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes13c705$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.453619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc7…8a27backed No71c704.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.053836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes37c699.99$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.545843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed No65c694.1$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2432373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No63c658$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.7516061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcab…4821backed Yes5c657.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b8…03a0backed Yes36c639.79$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a03…68d1backed Yes8c637.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No76c634.99$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.87042.9%30 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…fe65backed Yes71c608.34$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.721910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1fa…b277backed Yes68c585.05$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes26c576.96$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes27c572.87$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.431513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-54.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes56c543.4$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0417347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x152f…117fbacked Yes47c517.27$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes4c515.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ade…f2cdbacked Yes68c493.76$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.6730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes39c490$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.14744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca80…316abacked Yes28c488.54$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.181533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3715…9d3abacked Yes57c487.36$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.87450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes19c462.48$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5642818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No57c451.99$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.298058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes77c451.12$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.21275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+106.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No45c444.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.914843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No21c405$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.88250%41 W · 41 L+10.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa606…420fbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…79d0backed Yes14c396.47$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.07425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes79c377.34$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.572733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.7wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes10c366.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0813033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes48c350$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.240939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bd3…8c6fbacked Yes31c318.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb14a…27aabacked Yes11c311.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5111537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33e2…aec0backed Yes31c280$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.71816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeecc…ef84backed Yes73c274.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006547.7%31 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No73c261.78$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.693464.7%22 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes30c258.56$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9721926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes21c258.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes45c229.68$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8320247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes28c225$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6316246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1f9…5b74backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x524b…3fb8backed Yes8c212.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c204.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.321,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5445…4e0bbacked Yes31c203.45$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x429d…39a7backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes26c194.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb317…b679backed Yes10c192.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0edc…14c4backed Yes74c189.3$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes50c179.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5814940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No70c174.74$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.171346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c173.41$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes37c172.58$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.346431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No65c171.1$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.16254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes57c162.5$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3827047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes23c160.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.897413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed Yes21c158.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.342030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes26c145.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1431719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcea5…c747backed Yes42c145$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9023…54bbbacked Yes28c143.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc0…a839backed Yes11c141.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed No74c135.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.893154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4e2…1546backed No76c131.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.441172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes33c121.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4028943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x088b…3a58backed Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x307a…1aaabacked Yes27c115.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e9…7a95backed Yes31c111.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.