Middle East · resolved market
Another Israel strike on Damascus by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d4a4b7c1f0949637af2232390db46c07f607b5baea0d7bbb5c7c3dafe10f429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 51c | 7,254$3,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,581.44 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 47c | 4,341$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.45 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,879$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed Yes | 45c | 2,739$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.62 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 55c | 2,391$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.98 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 75c | 2,354$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 20c | 2,308$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.85 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…3a00backed No | 50c | 2,250$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.74 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…8a4dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,803$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.96 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,689$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.43 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 37c | 1,600$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 79c | 1,502$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 27c | 1,486$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.11 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,432$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.91 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 29c | 1,250$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 6c | 1,174$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 28c | 1,118$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.06 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 56c | 1,111$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.69 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 24c | 1,091$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.84 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 59c | 1,036$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.21 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 48c | 1,001$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.52 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 53c | 926.74$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.04 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 11c | 888.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 16c | 884.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…fbb3backed Yes | 10c | 811.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 47c | 784.31$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.07 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 52c | 755.1$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.87 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 29c | 720.81$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.31 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 13c | 705$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…8a27backed No | 71c | 704.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.05 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 37c | 699.99$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed No | 65c | 694.1$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 63c | 658$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.75 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 5c | 657.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…03a0backed Yes | 36c | 639.79$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…68d1backed Yes | 8c | 637.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 76c | 634.99$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…fe65backed Yes | 71c | 608.34$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.72 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…b277backed Yes | 68c | 585.05$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 576.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 27c | 572.87$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.43 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 56c | 543.4$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.04 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…117fbacked Yes | 47c | 517.27$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 4c | 515.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…f2cdbacked Yes | 68c | 493.76$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 39c | 490$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca80…316abacked Yes | 28c | 488.54$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3715…9d3abacked Yes | 57c | 487.36$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 462.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 57c | 451.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.29 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 77c | 451.12$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 45c | 444.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 21c | 405$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.8 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +10.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa606…420fbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…79d0backed Yes | 14c | 396.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 79c | 377.34$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.57 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 10c | 366.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked Yes | 31c | 318.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14a…27aabacked Yes | 11c | 311.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed Yes | 31c | 280$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…ef84backed Yes | 73c | 274.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 73c | 261.78$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 30c | 258.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 258.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 45c | 229.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 28c | 225$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…5b74backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…3fb8backed Yes | 8c | 212.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 204.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…4e0bbacked Yes | 31c | 203.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 26c | 194.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…b679backed Yes | 10c | 192.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0edc…14c4backed Yes | 74c | 189.3$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 50c | 179.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 70c | 174.74$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 173.41$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 37c | 172.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 65c | 171.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 57c | 162.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 23c | 160.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 21c | 158.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 26c | 145.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…c747backed Yes | 42c | 145$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…54bbbacked Yes | 28c | 143.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…a839backed Yes | 11c | 141.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed No | 74c | 135.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e2…1546backed No | 76c | 131.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…3a58backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307a…1aaabacked Yes | 27c | 115.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…7a95backed Yes | 31c | 111.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.