TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes42c11,364$4,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,759.166740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No61c9,087$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.832055%11 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes44c6,041$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652.753441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c4,586$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.223989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed No64c4,107$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.721844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-35.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No59c3,994$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.3216544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes36c3,316$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.7710347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes57c2,962$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.982941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes17c2,919$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.75010%5 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-82.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes18c2,790$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.29549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No78c2,758$2,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.722147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes44c2,527$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.4617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No47c2,396$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.6316144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No40c2,183$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.543930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes55c2,052$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.834946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.915735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No61c2,040$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.0137740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes9c2,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes51c2,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0103928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.9915646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…6cfdbacked No54c1,654$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.151478.6%11 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.36per pick42cpaid+119.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd4c4…a970backed Yes25c1,588$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No57c1,529$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.892650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c1,522$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.0999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked No46c1,500$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes35c1,348$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.353517.1%6 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No62c1,326$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.3512643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No73c1,280$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.212245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes15c1,263$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3335519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes58c1,244$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.9311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed Yes18c1,223$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.141040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No42c1,217$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.764353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes32c1,200$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37832626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes47c1,112$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.1713556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes36c1,110$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.389347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes4c1,109$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1718516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6e…0afabacked Yes8c1,102$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No59c1,075$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.73043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf20e…d622backed No79c1,074$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.22862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No61c1,049$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.655650%28 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes21c1,025$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3411428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe870…6bf8backed No51c1,022$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.071145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebd0…8af7backed Yes51c1,012$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa970…d60dbacked No48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5203100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+236.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked No48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5202025%5 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Yes37c999.98$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.091241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed No51c999.83$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.712931%9 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4230…0164backed No50c969.04$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.044100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+100.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes52c968.35$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.594922.4%11 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x31b6…3f0ebacked No48c947.63$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No43c888$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.2710950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0e95…a0e4backed Yes55c887.97$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.871060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No72c812$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.162661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae78…701cbacked Yes18c800$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d5…3ba6backed No73c795.08$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.43911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe497…5403backed No61c768.32$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.29666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x654b…c791backed Yes26c767.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes19c758.84$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.778134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No56c733.03$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.44673.9%34 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No78c732.88$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.975265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes70c712.58$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2136…ee56backed No52c696.43$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes49c684.43$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.158750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c682.8$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed No68c648.05$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.672536%9 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes9c646.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0633313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed No51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2943148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed Yes14c600$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes25c580$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3421…5cafbacked No51c576.93$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No68c573.99$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.7722347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No52c565.19$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.7617544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No69c557.75$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.337146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes17c555$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4618746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c527.6$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9956733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6030…5e0fbacked No51c505$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-58.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2608057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+112.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed Yes23c499.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes17c499.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853537.1%13 W · 22 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+177.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No75c499.99$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1273959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed No41c486.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.011844.4%8 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+43.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb425…5b93backed Yes55c455.1$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b9…1fe3backed No67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb185…0025backed No54c439.45$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes35c431.54$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0419348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No43c409.44$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.4419435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed No52c402.04$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1931827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes34c401.76$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.412630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20015238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2047254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No50c398.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.811646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0554…da2abacked No50c396.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.13825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9544…8b96backed No45c379.19$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed No53c378.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.852965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No48c375.17$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1317850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes38c373.49$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked No40c372.47$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.47616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-58.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a64…9f01backed Yes46c371.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701650%8 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+83.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f20…186bbacked Yes28c357.14$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.