Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffa427e04e3e097f47465eea39c24af4a8a1738334b7b2854bdf2d980c29640c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 53c | 17,738$9,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,307.95 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 54c | 10,677$5,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,781.05 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 46c | 10,580$4,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,893.3 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 58c | 9,499$5,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,472 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 42c | 9,340$3,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,877.23 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed No | 54c | 7,470$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,470.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 45c | 7,279$3,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000.1 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 46c | 7,216$3,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,325.06 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 50c | 6,766$3,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,392.41 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 67c | 5,983$4,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.96 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 43c | 4,682$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.56 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 51c | 4,097$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.44 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Yes | 43c | 4,037$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 50c | 3,246$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 42c | 3,171$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.55 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 37c | 2,922$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.33 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 50c | 2,901$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 48c | 2,817$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.13 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 61c | 2,737$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.43 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 50c | 2,674$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.25 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 52c | 2,411$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.83 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 51c | 2,232$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.86 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 54c | 2,176$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.32 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 40c | 2,156$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.46 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 66c | 1,921$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.78 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 39c | 1,813$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed No | 59c | 1,703$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.85 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 1,659$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.47 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 47c | 1,539$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.2 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 65c | 1,532$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.89 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…1761backed Yes | 68c | 1,494$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,443$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.44 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…10b0backed No | 70c | 1,430$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 70c | 1,429$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.3 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 71c | 1,403$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.87 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 69c | 1,388$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.74 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…fb6cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,361$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 1,308$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.63 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 1,305$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.67 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 58c | 1,251$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.8 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 50c | 1,218$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.74 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 53c | 1,194$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.42 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 59c | 1,181$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 39c | 1,130$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.07 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 50c | 1,119$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.57 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 43c | 1,092$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.94 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 47c | 1,069$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 64c | 1,035$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6e…0cf9backed No | 48c | 1,020$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…7cd5backed No | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 45c | 999.99$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.99 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…5e02backed Yes | 40c | 996.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…eb87backed No | 52c | 968.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.97 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 41c | 948.93$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.61 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…a91fbacked Yes | 64c | 935.39$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed No | 43c | 921.18$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 34c | 871.96$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 60c | 841.47$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 44c | 826.71$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.2 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 57c | 799.98$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.99 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 30c | 761.29$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.29 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 37c | 747.1$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.37 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…dd69backed No | 63c | 737.33$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 62c | 700$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.8 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 46c | 695.54$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.22 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…cb5fbacked Yes | 59c | 687.34$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.93 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes | 39c | 681.21$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.07 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…66c3backed Yes | 56c | 670.81$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 61c | 661.82$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.15 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf853…21d0backed No | 48c | 656.83$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.58 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 36c | 649.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.41 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…850abacked No | 49c | 648.84$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…b532backed Yes | 57c | 634.05$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…15a6backed Yes | 33c | 602.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…b8efbacked Yes | 59c | 594.68$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…5563backed Yes | 15c | 589.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 54c | 584.95$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.25 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…6c5fbacked Yes | 57c | 584.45$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed No | 66c | 557.57$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.13 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 70c | 534.67$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 526.45$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.19 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…7817backed No | 48c | 519.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 49c | 506.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.23 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 42c | 499.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.14 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…7a7bbacked No | 53c | 494.59$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 66c | 491.93$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…3134backed Yes | 51c | 485.19$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 34c | 433.82$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.32 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 55c | 428.51$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 74c | 407.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…37b6backed No | 43c | 402.41$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.05 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…5e6ebacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.