Us Politics · resolved market
Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x807235f5d271d0d36277ddfe84046e6c113e9f866aa9946f2d63161b9796703f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 7c | 1,700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 31c | 1,429$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 74c | 1,136$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.93 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 57c | 1,101$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.91 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.52 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,023$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.05 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 999.99$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 33c | 857.12$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.57 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 753.46$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.4 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 16c | 570.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…21e4backed No | 73c | 449.78$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 73c | 449.4$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.66 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 12c | 403.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 13c | 399.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 28c | 373.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 55c | 370.3$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.64 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 27c | 350$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…402abacked No | 62c | 305$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 59c | 304.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 76c | 299.78$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 22c | 273.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 30c | 273.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…1ff2backed No | 37c | 267.73$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.67 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 79c | 254.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 45c | 253.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.95 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 59c | 219.14$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 201.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…4942backed No | 72c | 188.41$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 174.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf195…b74bbacked No | 74c | 169.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae1…5cacbacked No | 64c | 157$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 42c | 142.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…2ac7backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 17c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 22c | 124.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 121.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed No | 70c | 121$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed No | 23c | 88.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 66c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 24c | 65.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 31c | 56.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…7ee1backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4086…c7fcbacked Yes | 23c | 55.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b3…3e2dbacked Yes | 44c | 52.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…6b22backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 42c | 50.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed No | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 37c | 40.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 67c | 34.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…d4ecbacked No | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 77c | 30.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…4fa1backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 57c | 27.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…f70dbacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…2c5bbacked No | 57c | 26.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 66c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4b…fe6ebacked No | 73c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 75c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32b…a82cbacked No | 59c | 16.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.