Weather · resolved market
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32b61d08c9e5552a7ba2e4c367ef84fbf3a79accbe3e194a1b0c98230ea6318a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 51c | 14,965$7,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,286.57 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…13c9backed No | 49c | 11,244$5,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,466.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed Yes | 76c | 10,582$8,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,562.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 74c | 7,881$5,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.97 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 66c | 6,072$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed No | 38c | 6,001$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 67c | 3,838$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 32c | 3,531$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed No | 33c | 3,132$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 34c | 2,649$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…378ebacked No | 51c | 2,599$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked No | 48c | 2,594$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 51c | 2,452$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…c9d2backed No | 56c | 2,308$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 40c | 2,156$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 54c | 2,008$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 63c | 2,000$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 1,901$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.24 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 26c | 1,715$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.71 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 56c | 1,690$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.53 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…936fbacked No | 34c | 1,667$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…e1dcbacked No | 27c | 1,562$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 51c | 1,528$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.75 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 32c | 1,501$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.38 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed Yes | 61c | 1,459$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992f…7c97backed Yes | 68c | 1,447$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 1,444$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…80fdbacked No | 28c | 1,356$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked No | 33c | 1,300$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +718.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed No | 26c | 1,264$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,221$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,111$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.07 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 69c | 1,088$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked No | 41c | 1,080$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 29c | 1,042$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 2c | 1,018$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30b…9fbfbacked Yes | 71c | 986$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…6021backed Yes | 58c | 951.17$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 52c | 869.34$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ab…a338backed No | 28c | 860.13$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc2…b496backed Yes | 70c | 844.63$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed No | 47c | 841.36$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 54c | 799.99$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 48c | 799.58$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 42c | 775.56$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.67 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc14c…8da0backed No | 52c | 759.01$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 756.61$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…2814backed Yes | 49c | 754$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +282.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…2cfbbacked No | 27c | 748.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 28c | 709.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ca…338bbacked No | 46c | 701.01$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 46c | 699.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…afe7backed No | 36c | 617.25$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 49c | 608.87$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…2264backed No | 60c | 605.34$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed No | 54c | 599.99$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…8855backed No | 26c | 576.31$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 70c | 576.31$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6af…866ebacked No | 38c | 530$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 43c | 529.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +282.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…b734backed No | 39c | 526.87$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Yes | 57c | 525.96$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked Yes | 62c | 499.91$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2569…074dbacked Yes | 44c | 470$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…44cabacked No | 56c | 470$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked No | 43c | 465.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 50c | 425.24$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked No | 5c | 422$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +254.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…19d8backed Yes | 77c | 413.96$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d15…3d9cbacked Yes | 76c | 398.54$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…90c1backed Yes | 53c | 379.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2a…43d5backed No | 57c | 373.78$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…173abacked No | 54c | 372.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 55c | 364.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…e6fdbacked Yes | 71c | 358.34$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed No | 27c | 355.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed No | 24c | 336.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…57f6backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 35c | 332.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3716…d3e1backed Yes | 58c | 329.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 28c | 329.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…f377backed No | 31c | 329.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 53c | 302.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…caeebacked Yes | 49c | 302.35$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa25…ad8abacked No | 27c | 301.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…81fdbacked No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…0f41backed No | 35c | 300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 53c | 300$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed No | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 42c | 292.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 52c | 289.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…d4dcbacked No | 35c | 282.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.