TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,883 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes1c10,798$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2112830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes14c3,988$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.7925311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6772…c2d4backed Yes50c3,428$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes6c2,806$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.395123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes16c2,461$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.8923435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes46c2,368$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.2114750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x432e…50f0backed No69c2,341$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa59a…dd69backed No59c2,250$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.721758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed No70c2,115$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.05812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No74c2,032$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.512547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes34c1,841$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.1924258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No32c1,623$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.5311050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No66c1,241$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.586443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7e…3e52backed No48c1,045$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes68c900.42$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.9313429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No44c829.9$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.748355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5a…747abacked No28c712.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.563432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No50c700.18$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.617949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc749…8b0abacked No40c643.39$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+273.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd85…231bbacked Yes65c618.61$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No46c565.22$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.2214456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b87…aa96backed No30c564.51$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+67.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes27c517.97$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0135341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes72c499.97$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.981656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes19c442.52$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6917232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb055…659dbacked No42c439.71$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.121154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed No49c421$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick33cpaid+314.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf066…a2ecbacked Yes10c420$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b5…9975backed No75c405.93$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.554163.4%26 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff73…a11dbacked No53c400.98$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.173557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes4c400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.241118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick38cpaid-71.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes50c399.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5913622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes55c380$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+106.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd937…cb9abacked No31c371.82$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No68c364.09$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8914147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1800…3005backed No78c338.45$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.454100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed No30c330.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes9c321.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.935133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes62c318.45$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1630837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes58c298.7$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.437356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x27ec…27aebacked No68c294.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.57875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed No55c284.88$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85cb…6603backed Yes32c277.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f33…81f6backed No63c270$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d2…45b5backed Yes30c265.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No39c255$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Yes70c250$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.55461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebd7…d40bbacked No40c248.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa27e…0f97backed No77c247.36$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No35c230$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.52313%3 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes37c226$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.62450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ba…c903backed No64c225.22$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.222060%12 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c224.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.921302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No30c221$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+116.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes17c220$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.31855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes9c213.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32380%0 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No65c212.64$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7515855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes61c209$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed No64c202$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd6…cd87backed No52c201.46$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf38e…0b87backed No40c200.17$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.17580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No52c200$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.921163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16580%0 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1404261.9%26 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642540%10 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%0 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17472.1%1 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-95.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes60c199.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes51c199.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9915451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No69c180$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4713128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes70c180$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes61c173$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.53520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes31c173$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes61c170.76$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf0…da21backed No26c170$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes34c169.64$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1211647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x265d…47d5backed No66c165.15$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes51c165$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d82…3d02backed Yes38c160$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-29.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes30c159.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7226238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No65c152.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.731877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.257243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes55c145$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No45c145$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+76%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x896f…b561backed Yes45c140$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed No39c137$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf853…21d0backed No44c137$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…0b0fbacked No53c131.38$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.382360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes68c129.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7921426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e93…353fbacked No50c129.06$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.781540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked No65c127.4$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes46c127.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7529416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes27c127$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.654810.4%5 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0039…046ebacked Yes59c126.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c125.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes24c124.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7620026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.