Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6ab92227c2e07ddb74c5414e2f9d040b9083c460599bf86d35d8a4bb714652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 10,798$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 3,988$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.79 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6772…c2d4backed Yes | 50c | 3,428$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,806$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.39 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 16c | 2,461$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.89 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 46c | 2,368$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.21 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…50f0backed No | 69c | 2,341$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…dd69backed No | 59c | 2,250$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 70c | 2,115$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 74c | 2,032$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.5 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 34c | 1,841$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.19 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 32c | 1,623$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.53 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 66c | 1,241$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.58 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…3e52backed No | 48c | 1,045$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 68c | 900.42$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.93 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 44c | 829.9$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.74 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked No | 28c | 712.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.56 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 50c | 700.18$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.61 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…8b0abacked No | 40c | 643.39$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +273.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…231bbacked Yes | 65c | 618.61$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 46c | 565.22$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.22 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…aa96backed No | 30c | 564.51$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 27c | 517.97$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.01 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 72c | 499.97$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 442.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb055…659dbacked No | 42c | 439.71$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed No | 49c | 421$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 33cpaid | +314.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf066…a2ecbacked Yes | 10c | 420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 75c | 405.93$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 53c | 400.98$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.17 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 50c | 399.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 55c | 380$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd937…cb9abacked No | 31c | 371.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 68c | 364.09$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1800…3005backed No | 78c | 338.45$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed No | 30c | 330.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 9c | 321.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 318.45$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 58c | 298.7$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…27aebacked No | 68c | 294.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed No | 55c | 284.88$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 32c | 277.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed No | 63c | 270$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…45b5backed Yes | 30c | 265.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 39c | 255$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 70c | 250$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebd7…d40bbacked No | 40c | 248.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27e…0f97backed No | 77c | 247.36$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 35c | 230$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 37c | 226$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…c903backed No | 64c | 225.22$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 224.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked No | 30c | 221$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 17c | 220$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 213.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 65c | 212.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 61c | 209$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed No | 64c | 202$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…cd87backed No | 52c | 201.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38e…0b87backed No | 40c | 200.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 180$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 70c | 180$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 61c | 173$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes | 31c | 173$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 61c | 170.76$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed No | 26c | 170$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 34c | 169.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265d…47d5backed No | 66c | 165.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 51c | 165$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed Yes | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 30c | 159.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 65c | 152.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 55c | 145$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 45c | 145$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 39c | 137$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf853…21d0backed No | 44c | 137$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…0b0fbacked No | 53c | 131.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 68c | 129.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 50c | 129.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 65c | 127.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 127.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 27c | 127$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0039…046ebacked Yes | 59c | 126.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 125.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 124.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.