Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0124daa7158fc3bb6a1b3163f1510fd4c15279970b60386b75ccdce1210db332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 4c | 10,612$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.12 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…1d68backed Yes | 14c | 5,648$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 3,039$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 2,660$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.75 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 2,251$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.53 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,196$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 2,050$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…9a4dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,388$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 3c | 1,243$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…11c0backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…3fb8backed Yes | 1c | 812.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 13c | 805.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…56d0backed Yes | 4c | 793$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…7ad2backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b62bbacked Yes | 2c | 611$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…a340backed Yes | 3c | 579$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…7dd5backed Yes | 3c | 566$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…de25backed Yes | 4c | 490$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c9…4442backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…aadebacked Yes | 3c | 395$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…bdf7backed Yes | 8c | 357.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 13c | 334.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 16c | 327$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 19c | 315.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…5de1backed Yes | 14c | 311.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 17c | 301.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…1588backed Yes | 4c | 298$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…d3ebbacked Yes | 4c | 283$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…4ee8backed Yes | 14c | 219.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 15c | 196.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 16c | 191.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 146$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…1404backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…1ff2backed Yes | 12c | 138.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccb…bfcdbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 18c | 108.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…14afbacked Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…2553backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…37fbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 14c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…e5c0backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 17c | 72.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…f431backed Yes | 14c | 71.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked Yes | 20c | 65.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.