Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf1a9a3fe267d5627ef9da3c7905ef483d447de599356444c08d13749fada668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 2,234$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 2,158$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.98 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 30c | 1,889$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.74 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 1,541$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.89 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 12c | 1,490$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed No | 1c | 1,288$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 11c | 1,287$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.56 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 59c | 1,274$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.89 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed No | 4c | 1,220$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 933.41$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.24 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 13c | 899.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 2c | 829.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 55c | 750$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed No | 10c | 750$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 28c | 726.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 635.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…51eabacked No | 9c | 605$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 7c | 536.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 19c | 515.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +67%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed No | 34c | 497.6$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed No | 23c | 437.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 12c | 422.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb23…7f28backed No | 14c | 393.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 359.9$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked No | 14c | 353.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 11c | 337.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbd…dde8backed No | 6c | 325.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fee…5706backed No | 20c | 311.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 42c | 311.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.02 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da7…c168backed No | 7c | 300.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 18c | 277.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 25c | 260.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.79 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 37c | 237.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.53 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 26c | 234.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.01 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…19a3backed No | 46c | 218.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 13c | 212.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 72c | 207.27$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…d46dbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 17c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked No | 16c | 191.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 54c | 148.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked Yes | 64c | 136.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…813fbacked No | 12c | 133.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked No | 78c | 131.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed No | 48c | 122.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7901…5575backed Yes | 17c | 116.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 77c | 109.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…e370backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 29c | 97.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked No | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 41c | 90.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 64c | 77.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac5…28d4backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e1…db83backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 69c | 64.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…9bafbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…d67ebacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283e…9316backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 65c | 29.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…1ff2backed No | 44c | 24.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 65c | 24.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 44c | 23.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31?this page
- Will Israel strike Yemen 1 times by October 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by October 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 3 times by October 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 4 times by October 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 5 or more times by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.