Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Yemen 1 times by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b02310f46df5c2a13445973294c82831f63433aa8774082b05b6ca3ab9f56c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 6c | 2,372$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…19d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,808$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 10c | 1,713$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.64 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 1,591$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,209$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.22 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…efd2backed Yes | 10c | 1,007$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 10c | 708.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…f9edbacked Yes | 8c | 704.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 6c | 599.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 17c | 586.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 7c | 582.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 577$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 546.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…96c9backed Yes | 11c | 407.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…dfccbacked Yes | 8c | 380.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…e686backed Yes | 11c | 280.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 7c | 280.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 272.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…592fbacked Yes | 20c | 251.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 9c | 224.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…2395backed Yes | 7c | 223.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 9c | 221$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 13c | 215.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…509ebacked Yes | 12c | 210.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed Yes | 6c | 202.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…492dbacked Yes | 48c | 198.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…5d45backed Yes | 6c | 191.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 11c | 184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb27…9668backed Yes | 9c | 159.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 16c | 130.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 18c | 112.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 58.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe369…a690backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0d…bfa1backed Yes | 35c | 45.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Yemen 1 times by October 31?this page
- Will Israel strike Yemen 0 times by October 31?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by October 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 3 times by October 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 4 times by October 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Yemen 5 or more times by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.