Us Politics · resolved market
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4685c41276496f4f49094cc27abed3f22356851bd53f769c3750fb624adb70cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,913,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,928,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,913,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 699 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13af…d1cabacked No | 0c | 98,701$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed No | 0c | 54,833$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 5c | 33,496$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.99 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 62c | 27,524$16,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,581.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 34c | 23,779$8,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,203.06 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 20c | 22,823$4,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,657.38 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed No | 1c | 22,024$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…30c2backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab1…2473backed No | 7c | 19,937$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 49c | 18,766$9,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,259.44 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Yes | 78c | 17,740$13,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,978.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf513…8297backed No | 46c | 17,330$7,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,943.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e4…5b49backed No | 0c | 15,780$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…e59cbacked Yes | 55c | 15,398$8,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,938.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…bd6ebacked No | 2c | 15,393$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 38c | 15,207$5,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,776.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 63c | 15,144$9,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,618.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 71c | 15,102$10,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,428.31 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…b0cabacked Yes | 70c | 14,025$9,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,198.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 71c | 12,174$8,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,572.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed No | 8c | 11,639$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.41 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 27c | 11,474$3,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,339.66 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 30c | 10,384$3,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.86 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 14c | 10,362$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.88 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Yes | 32c | 9,993$3,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,757.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed No | 27c | 9,753$2,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.42 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 37c | 9,267$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,862.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 60c | 9,227$5,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,715.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 9,013$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 38c | 8,339$3,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,141.81 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…418fbacked No | 8c | 8,281$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 8c | 8,202$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.79 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…ec8fbacked No | 25c | 7,777$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked No | 0c | 7,668$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacc…ab79backed No | 0c | 7,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…3e65backed No | 0c | 7,232$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…3ad9backed No | 1c | 7,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 18c | 6,959$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.18 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 44c | 6,670$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 46c | 6,604$3,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.73 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 61c | 6,458$3,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.33 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 35c | 6,391$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…f6dbbacked Yes | 80c | 6,336$5,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…a660backed No | 2c | 6,200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes | 47c | 6,172$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,280.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…fb79backed Yes | 46c | 6,171$2,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,308.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed Yes | 66c | 6,000$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…99eebacked No | 1c | 5,939$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked No | 0c | 5,672$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 46c | 5,639$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,054.34 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x179a…9841backed No | 1c | 5,476$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 45c | 5,405$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 49c | 5,288$2,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,591.98 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 38c | 5,244$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 31c | 5,224$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.38 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,175$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,567.87 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed No | 6c | 5,046$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.07 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 23c | 4,903$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,754.61 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 46c | 4,757$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.06 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…8c9dbacked Yes | 72c | 4,754$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa420…6ab7backed Yes | 79c | 4,746$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 30c | 4,739$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 40c | 4,676$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 4,640$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,983.49 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 4,639$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 13c | 4,635$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,023.6 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…ce4dbacked No | 49c | 4,630$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a8…83e7backed No | 0c | 4,429$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5677backed No | 50c | 4,296$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,164.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 44c | 4,228$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,383.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 4,191$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.08 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed No | 0c | 4,181$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…b294backed Yes | 74c | 4,179$3,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 30c | 3,889$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…e3ddbacked No | 3c | 3,714$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…e660backed No | 45c | 3,597$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…9b76backed No | 1c | 3,584$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 18c | 3,500$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.44 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…1076backed Yes | 75c | 3,350$2,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 3,319$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.84 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cf…7f9ebacked No | 48c | 3,305$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed Yes | 67c | 3,292$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 39c | 3,292$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 27c | 3,269$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.2 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 17c | 3,218$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…24e0backed No | 0c | 3,147$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked No | 38c | 3,100$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 27c | 3,088$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.94 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 70c | 3,026$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.41 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 33c | 3,025$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.35 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 34c | 3,000$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 26c | 2,941$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.53 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 60c | 2,899$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.21 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…9b0fbacked Yes | 79c | 2,894$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 75c | 2,839$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…019cbacked No | 6c | 2,822$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 16c | 2,809$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.98 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 10c | 2,800$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?this page
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June 27?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.