Us Politics · resolved market
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff5137265a5541424ce7d67cea3cd1833d8cf745c20f3697d487e4f5656b70cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $338,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 266 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ab1…2473backed No | 0c | 39,463$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 24c | 10,179$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.19 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 50c | 9,239$4,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,623.53 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed No | 5c | 7,033$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.07 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed No | 50c | 7,014$3,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,535.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…bb1bbacked No | 0c | 6,547$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…a660backed No | 0c | 6,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa420…6ab7backed No | 79c | 5,475$4,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,311.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 74c | 4,834$3,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.45 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 57c | 4,781$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.44 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 74c | 4,510$3,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 77c | 4,043$3,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.77 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 28c | 3,524$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.7 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 15c | 3,467$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes | 51c | 3,302$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 4c | 3,224$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 45c | 3,148$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 64c | 3,120$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…68abbacked No | 32c | 3,104$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…fd15backed No | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…27acbacked No | 49c | 2,755$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 69c | 2,673$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed No | 27c | 2,405$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.71 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 69c | 2,256$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 30c | 2,254$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.88 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a061backed No | 21c | 2,100$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 30c | 2,080$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 70c | 2,063$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.52 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 27c | 2,021$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.26 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 44c | 2,000$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 55c | 1,921$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.11 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 18c | 1,747$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.42 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7083backed No | 46c | 1,723$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…13cdbacked No | 1c | 1,711$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 51c | 1,707$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.06 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 1,700$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…a852backed No | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 71c | 1,544$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 45c | 1,506$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 31c | 1,487$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed No | 34c | 1,474$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1b…d45ebacked No | 1c | 1,430$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 50c | 1,406$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 70c | 1,398$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.7 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…156bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,397$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…6d05backed No | 1c | 1,376$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 28c | 1,344$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.26 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…e59cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,327$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…92bfbacked No | 46c | 1,311$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…e851backed No | 35c | 1,269$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 33c | 1,216$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 21c | 1,108$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.89 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 28c | 1,086$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.14 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 1,063$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.07 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 19c | 1,059$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…6c9cbacked No | 41c | 1,039$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 74c | 887.95$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 67c | 886.86$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cf…7f9ebacked No | 23c | 868.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 77c | 855.56$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.91 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 29c | 852.19$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 31c | 840.7$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.19 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 13c | 819.56$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.02 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 29c | 814.85$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.91 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 31c | 800$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 27c | 785.97$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.23 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…cb53backed No | 25c | 783.93$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 67c | 771.99$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 72c | 761$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 70c | 757.75$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.28 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed No | 40c | 757.07$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 53c | 754.69$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 70c | 743$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.31 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 45c | 720.86$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.05 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dc…3843backed Yes | 55c | 700.84$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…1152backed Yes | 70c | 681.11$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +475.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…d58fbacked Yes | 78c | 637.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…30bebacked No | 80c | 625$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…7937backed No | 23c | 623.32$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…88e3backed No | 25c | 605.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…13ecbacked Yes | 78c | 600$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…4575backed No | 51c | 600$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 599.99$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked No | 31c | 598.89$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 25c | 596.87$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 31c | 578.5$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 73c | 566.16$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.53 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 7c | 566.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 75c | 555$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8c…b6b1backed No | 23c | 553.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 42c | 535.32$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 32c | 534.83$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f17…fecbbacked Yes | 21c | 530$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +371.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 35c | 511$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.15 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…28a6backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked No | 46c | 465.15$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked No | 17c | 459.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed No | 27c | 444.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…e660backed No | 48c | 438.88$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?this page
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June 27?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.