Us Politics · resolved market
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd37c1e0f15332959d29e27e7b49c2cb7ff643a506cfe27fa978381bac3ece0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 48c | 11,886$5,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,223.17 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed No | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 27c | 9,000$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.99 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 6,884$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 48c | 6,716$3,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,244.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 29c | 5,499$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.12 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed No | 52c | 4,111$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 61c | 3,962$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 74c | 3,534$2,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.26 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,369$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…68abbacked No | 33c | 3,267$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 65c | 2,957$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe16b…d883backed Yes | 76c | 2,823$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 44c | 2,425$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…27acbacked No | 42c | 2,396$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 61c | 2,345$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.17 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 30c | 2,299$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.48 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 1c | 2,226$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…e59cbacked Yes | 75c | 2,114$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed No | 27c | 1,987$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 73c | 1,965$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.24 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…f3b0backed No | 54c | 1,893$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 45c | 1,887$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.84 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 72c | 1,853$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.83 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked No | 30c | 1,838$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.32 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 1,809$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked No | 59c | 1,798$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 74c | 1,777$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cf…7f9ebacked No | 29c | 1,752$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 58c | 1,720$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.26 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…fd15backed No | 58c | 1,705$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 61c | 1,629$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 67c | 1,544$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.1 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 19c | 1,541$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.58 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 44c | 1,500$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 72c | 1,485$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.35 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…7db5backed No | 39c | 1,471$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 66c | 1,431$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.06 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 70c | 1,421$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.34 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 71c | 1,408$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 71c | 1,372$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 17c | 1,350$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.81 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 24c | 1,296$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.83 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…6149backed Yes | 68c | 1,286$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 80c | 1,270$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.09 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…4575backed Yes | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 66c | 1,230$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.94 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 24c | 1,179$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.02 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 1,145$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.92 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,121$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed No | 32c | 1,115$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 25c | 1,111$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 69c | 1,097$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 49c | 1,068$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.47 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 15c | 1,066$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2618…0a87backed Yes | 42c | 917.98$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 15c | 908.68$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 885.17$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.72 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…eb35backed Yes | 58c | 865.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 24c | 836.91$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed No | 73c | 816.01$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 12c | 792.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…6c9cbacked Yes | 79c | 776.87$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 35c | 760.91$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f76…a2bfbacked Yes | 75c | 760.78$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed No | 24c | 758.33$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 63c | 746.35$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.88 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 21c | 734.44$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 45c | 700$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 74c | 700$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 32c | 679.57$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed No | 28c | 644.55$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 71c | 640$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 56c | 595.71$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.3 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67e…ca0dbacked No | 27c | 594.45$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked No | 28c | 559$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 71c | 556.77$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.17 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 23c | 540$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…bdecbacked No | 28c | 519.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…df9fbacked Yes | 71c | 516.44$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 46c | 505.19$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.06 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…3e0dbacked No | 30c | 504.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…c09fbacked No | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 37c | 500$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.59 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 62c | 500$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…becdbacked Yes | 72c | 498.46$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 41c | 487.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f1…50d1backed No | 25c | 483.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 68c | 450.1$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 68c | 440.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 5c | 440$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 432.89$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…1dd0backed No | 47c | 424.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 48c | 420$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.8 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June 27?this page
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.