Us Politics · resolved market
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c2e353aca69db8de34f3a46b13e0937e9291229927dbb536c86901d523349d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 11c | 14,383$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 6,761$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 80c | 4,658$3,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.71 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 16c | 2,308$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.26 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 44c | 2,179$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…b532backed Yes | 24c | 1,743$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +214%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cf…7f9ebacked No | 73c | 1,367$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 33c | 1,272$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.22 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes | 26c | 1,244$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 1,112$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.47 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 18c | 1,025$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +176%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 75c | 1,022$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…7532backed Yes | 22c | 911.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 4c | 904.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 18c | 810.36$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 30c | 776$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 13c | 754.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 65c | 724.1$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.24 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 659.74$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 31c | 659.08$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 66c | 622.85$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.77 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed No | 67c | 565.68$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 39c | 562.12$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 10c | 555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 520.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 499.79$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 50c | 499.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.62 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Yes | 9c | 497.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…e7f7backed Yes | 50c | 457.24$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 68c | 450$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes | 35c | 449.08$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…5ad6backed No | 66c | 440.51$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…f752backed No | 76c | 400$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 38c | 345$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4506…3dd1backed No | 66c | 303.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 34c | 300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 22c | 285.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 266.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c2…077cbacked Yes | 36c | 233.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 74c | 218$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 78c | 217.88$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc93…55edbacked No | 64c | 210.9$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 179.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +593.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 14c | 147.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 61c | 139.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 34c | 130.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 39c | 125.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 14c | 121.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 116.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…9019backed Yes | 33c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…32f3backed Yes | 29c | 108.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed No | 70c | 107$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1541…e78dbacked Yes | 26c | 100.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed No | 67c | 82.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…ed46backed Yes | 37c | 80.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 65c | 79.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…ae46backed No | 66c | 78.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…88edbacked No | 66c | 77.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d75…ab74backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…5a29backed Yes | 36c | 55.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d52…2f63backed No | 75c | 51.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…cac2backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…9ce7backed Yes | 24c | 49.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…af0dbacked No | 75c | 42.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…67f4backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 34c | 38.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 79c | 34.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…b152backed No | 65c | 28.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 46c | 27.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…71c3backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…cd67backed Yes | 48c | 22.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June 22?this page
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June 27?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.