Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15a41bd7a389e2e9bbded44107bcd0886f8408e83510cf3ab8ecbbc93f173ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c2a…c8c8backed No | 74c | 17,522$13,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,469.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 72c | 10,835$7,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,747.84 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 37c | 9,508$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,502.15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 10c | 7,006$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.85 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 45c | 5,495$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.54 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 51c | 5,477$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,659.47 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed No | 26c | 4,634$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,443.28 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 3,350$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.69 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 21c | 2,722$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,137.48 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 66c | 2,396$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.67 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 64c | 2,239$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.12 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 15c | 1,750$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.5 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 60c | 1,695$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,297$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.99 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,277$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.08 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.07 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,166$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 41c | 1,158$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.92 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 16c | 1,081$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.76 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 60c | 997.01$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 78c | 929.02$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.92 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 35c | 909.33$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 8c | 872.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 9c | 868.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 35c | 841.21$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.72 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 25c | 797.63$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…0633backed Yes | 13c | 755.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 32c | 691.53$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 77c | 688.79$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.4 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 634$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 12c | 589.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 33c | 569.79$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.95 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 39c | 555.79$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed No | 72c | 495.57$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.96 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 23c | 492.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 13c | 486.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 35c | 477.3$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.67 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 72c | 457.91$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…ca63backed Yes | 48c | 417$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 80c | 411.98$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 19c | 405$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 21c | 404.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…07b9backed Yes | 63c | 386.06$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.37 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 23c | 367.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 48c | 352.11$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.13 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +10.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 71c | 350$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 12c | 345$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 23c | 340$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 73c | 316.46$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 312.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 24c | 305$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.55 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 66c | 266.56$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.06 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…3654backed No | 52c | 254.09$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 47c | 221.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 72c | 220$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 27c | 210$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 52c | 203.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…d94fbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 24c | 199.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f01…2284backed Yes | 35c | 180.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 18c | 180$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed No | 48c | 175$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0790…fd72backed Yes | 44c | 171.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 63c | 162.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…e76abacked No | 62c | 161.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed Yes | 13c | 159.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…187cbacked Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…c9e1backed Yes | 13c | 137.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…25bfbacked Yes | 21c | 121.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 56c | 110.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked No | 61c | 95.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 32c | 93.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d08…733dbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 17c | 79.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x820c…7a8cbacked Yes | 21c | 74.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 20c | 73.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…a74bbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…8b52backed Yes | 23c | 58.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…72bebacked No | 52c | 57.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 23c | 54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?this page
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 21?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.